Editor's Note: Below is an excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by CEO Keith McCullough.
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The #1 question in my inbox intraday and post market close yesterday was “what do you think happens next?” A: Quad 4 The only thing Mr. Market did yesterday was reiterate what we think is the most probable economic and market outcome in the US in Q4 of 2018. And that’s that the rates of change for both US GROWTH and INFLATION are going to slow in Q4 of 2018. Yep, that’s what Quad 4 is locally. And if you haven’t seen it manifest globally this year, you may not have an internet connection and/or live quotes. If you’ve been on a 10 month vacation off the grid, here’s the recap: 1. China Slowing 2. Europe Slowing 3. Emerging Markets Slowing Got stock markets #crashing on that? So… almost 100% of our existing and prospective clients agreed to agree on China, Europe, and EM #slowing, after they slowed. But how many agreed with the call that the probability was rising that they’d slow before it was obvious that they were slowing? Some did. Some didn’t. Sometimes it takes Quad 4 hitting you in the PnL for it to make sense. As a reminder, the Top 3 Factor Exposures we told you to get out of 3 weeks ago in our Q4 Macro Themes presentation (slide 70) are: 1. Momentum 2. High Beta 3. Tech Stocks |
