Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from a recent Early Look written by Director of Research Daryl Jones. Click here to learn more about the Early Look.
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We hosted a call yesterday titled, “Jump Conditions in Wage Inflation Are Just Around the Corner”. The call featured a 80-page deck filled with great nuggets, including deep dives on specific sectors. But this morning, we wanted to highlight one important slide, today's "Chart of the Day" that shows we are at a point where dissipating labor market tightness has historically led to a “Jump” in wages. One caveat from the analysis is that there is not always a direct tie in to CPI and wages. In fact, based on our current “now-casting” framework CPI may actually peak in July of 2018. On the other hand, wage growth may well be an indicator that corporate profits, especially in employment heavy industries, is also close to peaking. |
