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Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

So, since the Fed’s forecasts are based on a lag to lagging economic data that they didn’t predict would #accelerate to the peak-cycle levels we’ll see come July and August, the fundamental analyst is probably right in predicting a hawkish Fed. 

But what about the Portfolio Manager and/or Chief Risk Manager of market expectations? 

As you can see in today’s Chart of the Day, our proprietary predictive tracking algo is now-casting at least a -100 basis point drop from peak-cycle headline inflation to where the market will be reacting to incoming data within 6-9 months. 

CHART OF THE DAY: Our Inflation Forecast - 06.13.18 EL Chart

CHART OF THE DAY: Our Inflation Forecast - market brief