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Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more about the Early Look.

“I think there’s a fundamental problem in terms of how macro economists look at the economic outlook, growth, and inflation.”
–Bill Dudley

While I highly doubt the New York Fed’s Bill Dudley would publicly admit that his successor (John Williams from the SF Fed) has fundamental forecasting problems, I will.

My job isn’t to support the Old Wall and its broken forecasting models. It’s to help you make and save money playing against their consensus views. As Ray Dalio reminds us in Principles“We financial people see the world very differently from the way economists do.” (pg 83)

The San Francisco Fed’s Williams tried to convince a crowd of head bobbers yesterday that “inflation is not taking off.” Meanwhile Oil was ripping to new YTD highs alongside the UST 10yr yield doing the same at 3.08%.

Fed Forecasting Models Are Broken - Chart of the Day

Fed Forecasting Models Are Broken - early look