APPRENTICE WASHINGTON: President Trump may have dodged an embarrassing bullet now that CIA Director Mike Pompeo is on track to become the next Secretary of State - but more trouble lurks on the horizon with his imperiled picks for CIA director,Gina Hapsel, and Veterans Affairs Secretary, Admiral Ronny Jackson. Jackson, in particular, wasn't vetted and Trump is quickly finding out that his impulsive management style has consequences and is taking a toll on his Republican allies on Capitol Hill. While Jackson may stand firm for the time being and weather the trickle of damaging revelations, we suspect that reluctance by Senate Republicans to hold a confirmation hearing may end up signaling his eventual demise. Trump may have yet another problem on his hands with EPA director Scott Pruitt rapidly losing support on Capitol Hill, within Trump's inner circle - and likely Trump himself. All eyes will be on Pruitt tomorrow when he goes before the House Energy and Commerce and Appropriations Committees to defend his policy positions as well as his scandal-plagued tenure at the EPA. In the meantime, Administration officials are letting Pruitt hang in the wind and he's refused all help from the West Wing in preparation for tomorrow's testimony. Should he be shown the door, Trump and Co. will need to brace themselves for what we'd expect to be the most bruising confirmation battle to date. We're not losing sight of the fact that Congressional hearings for Cabinet and sub-Cabinet posts will eat up large swaths of time in the Senate already woefully behind in confirmation hearings - not to mention the glacial pace at which the Trump Administration is sending up candidates for said positions.
source: Washington Post confirmation tracker
A REPUBLICAN WIN?: Republicans narrowly avoided another special election upset in Arizona in the state's conservative 8th District yesterday. Republican Debbie Lesko, a former state senator beat out Democrat Hiral Tipirneni, a physician, who faced off for the seat previously held by Republican Trent Franks, who won the district with more than 68 percent of the vote in 2016. With less than 10% of the vote left to count, Lesko holds a lead of 5 points in a district Trump won by over 21 points. Republicans threw over $1 million into the race in a district they've won comfortably for the past 35 years and according to David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report "there are 147 GOP-held House seats less Republican than #AZ08 - it's time to start rethinking how many of those are truly safe in November." Republicans will be hard-pressed to spend that amount defending less safe turf across the board.
NEW TWIST TO RESCISSIONS: Despite repeated warnings from their fellow Republican's at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, Trump Administration officials led by OMB Director Mick Mulvaney continue to move forward with their quest to scale back the $1.3T Omnibus with a $30-60B rescissions package (likley closer to $30B) expected to be delivered to Congress's doorstep early next month. We've said before that the package is DOA, but it's worth noting that the Administration's scope has evolved beyond the FY18 package and may look at unused program dollars from FY 17 as well as cuts in foreign aid potentially enticing additional lawmakers into taking a second look.
TREASURY'S 300: Secretary Steve Mnuchin and his team at the Department of Treasury have been busy at work on Trump's regulatory agenda and submitted their list of 300 regs slated for elimination or reduction. Find the Treasury report here.
CFPB AUTO GUIDANCE AFTER RECESS: House Republican leaders are planning to vote the week of May 7 on a Senate-passed resolution that would block 2013 Consumer Financial Protection Bureau guidance on auto-lending discrimination, according to an unnamed Administration source. The resolution, which the Senate adopted last week, is seen as very likely to clear the House and become law.
A NEW GENERATION TAKES AIM AT GUN CONTROL: Hedgeye's chief demographer Neil Howe takes a look at the changing dynamics in the gun control debate. Howe's full piece here.
IRAN OIL SANCTIONS STILL EXPECTED DESPITE MACRON PUSH FOR "NEW DEAL": Read Joe McMonigle's unchanged view on prospects for the Iran deal here.
COURT REVIEWS FCC ORDER CRITICAL TO SINCLAIR/TRIBUNE DEAL (SBGI, TRCO): Paul Glenchur weighs in on the federal appeals court review of FCC decision that facilitates the Sinclair/Tribune deal. His note here.
BRINGING THE HAMMER DOWN | CMS PROPOSES MORE REPORTING OF DIR FEES IN PART D | CVS, DPLO, HUM, UNH: In what can only be a set up for point of sale rebates for Part D beneficiaries, CMS proposes new guidance requiring more detailed reporting. Read the analysis by Emily Evans here.
XI FOR LIFE: General Dan Christman writes on two ground-shifting events that have taken place over the last months that have the potential to fundamentally alter U.S. relations with the Sinic and Muslim worlds. You can read his note here.
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ON TRACK TO OUTSPEND REAGAN BUILDUP: General Emo Garder writes that DoD's topline for FY2019 is a foregone conclusion but breathtaking in its aspiration. Read his insight here.
