Takeaway: Iran favors $60 oil prices to mitigate shale revival & Russia insists on a June review of the OPEC production cut deal.

Join us for lunch to hear from Chakib Khelil, former OPEC President and former Algerian energy minister, for a preview of OPEC's next steps as it approaches its June meeting and begins discussions on the end game for the production cut agreement with Russia and other non-OPEC producers.

Thursday, March 15, 2018
12:30 PM
Location: The National, 557 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY
RSVP to sales@hedgeye.com

Friday, March 16, 2018
12:30 PM
Location The Palm, 100 Oliver Street, Lobby Level, Boston, MA
RSVP to sales@hedgeye.com

OPEC's decisions over the next few months will have big impact on oil prices.  While the production cut agreement between OPEC and Russia & other non-OPEC producers was technically extended until the end of 2018, Russia had insisted on a review of the deal at the June OPEC meeting.  Russian oil companies are pressuring the government to exit the agreement because they are losing money.  So there is a question mark about Russia staying in the deal after June. 

In addition, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday about their interview with Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh who said “Iran will press for carefully bringing back some of its own production” at the June meeting.  Zanganeh said Iran also favors $60 oil prices because “if the price jumps to $70, it will motivate more production in shale oil in the United States.”

The Iranian OPEC strategy will put them at odds with the Saudis who prefer prices in the $70 range as it prepares for the eventual Aramco IPO and other economic reforms.

Moreover, OPEC and Russia have begun discussions regarding the end-game and wind down of the production cuts deal. Will they just end on January 1, 2019 or phase down the cuts during low demand Q1 2019? Also, OPEC Secretary General Barkindo is developing a framework for a permanent on-going OPEC and non-OPEC cooperation to manage oil markets.

Minister Khelil will provide his assessment of OPEC’s production cut agreement with Russia and other non-OPEC producers as well as to preview two upcoming meetings to decide the agreement’s future.

Minister Khelil will take us inside the OPEC decision making process and discuss the following topics:

  • His and OPEC’s view of current market conditions;
  • The emerging Iran-Saudi Arabia split of OPEC oil prices strategy;
  • Dueling OPEC and IEA demand forecasts; and
  • Will Russia continue the agreement after the June meeting;
  • What happens to the agreement in 2019;
  • Any OPEC surprises.

The lunch event will be hosted and moderated by Hedgeye’s Senior Energy Policy Analyst Joe McMonigle who just returned from meetings in Riyadh and will also attend the June OPEC meeting in Vienna. 

The event is only open to Hedgeye clients. Please contact your sales representative for more information or email sales@hedgeye.com.