THIS WEEK:
- The House and the Senate are in session. The House was expected to be on recess all week but remained in Washington over the weekend pending action in the Senate over the CR.
- The Senate will vote at 12:00pm today on a moderate compromise to fund the government until February 8.
- The House would promptly take up the Senate-passed CR.
- President Trump and 16 Cabinet members and senior staff are currently slated to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos with Trump scheduled to speak on the final day. The outcome of the government shutdown will determine their attendance.
- The Sixth Round of NAFTA negotiations begins in Montreal this week.
SHUTDOWN STATE OF PLAY:
With both Republican and Democrats leaders as entrenched as ever over the weekend, a bipartisan group of moderate Senators have stepped in and have forged the only viable stopgap solution to end what feels to us like one of the more senseless Kabuki dances we’ve seen in Washington in years.
With a procedural vote now scheduled for 12:00pm today, the moderate compromise is the only proposal on the table (it’s possible but not likely the February 16 House-passed CR comes back into play) that stands between the shutdown bleeding into the work week and the first day of trading with markets yawning over the past week over the inaction in Washington. The vote threshold is 60 for passage.
The group of moderates has been meeting behind closed doors all weekend and are proposing to keep the government open until February 8 with a guarantee that Congress would commit to and proceed with a series of votes on DACA and border security with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell adding in defense spending and floor action on a disaster relief measure. It’s unclear if the House is 100% on board with this strategy.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer was noncommittal and is currently consulting with his colleagues before today’s noon deadline. We’ll step out on a limb here and guess that the first Democrats he’ll talk to are those up for reelection in the states Donald Trump won in 2016. We hear that they’re feeling the heat and may put pressure on Schumer’s strategy in this morning’s caucus meeting.
As we wrote on Friday, should the moderate Senate compromise advance, Ryan and his leadership team in the House are hoping to quickly take up the proposal without jumping through the usual drawn-out procedural hoops.
Speaker Ryan’s former chief of staff David Hoppe offered up this strategy to us last night: move without debate or amendments to a final passage vote on the House-passed CR today. After that vote, the next order of business would be to move without debate to vote on amendments and final passage of the FY'18 DoD appropriations legislation. Immediately after that vote move without debate to consideration of a DACA resolution offered by the Majority Leader of the Senate. That should result in reopening the government, passing the DoD appropriations bill so those defending us around the world and those training to defend us will have the certainty that they won't be used as hostages again until at least October 1, 2018, and a vote on resolving the DACA situation well before the deadline of March 5.
Finally, as we ponder the three week versus the four week CR date, a February 8 date almost assures we will be back at this again with another CR request in early February. Assuming passage of the February 8 CR, work will resume on finding a compromise on DACA. President Trump is scheduled to give his State of the Union speech on January 30. Republicans in the House and the Senate go on their retreat January 31 to February 2 and House Democrats go on retreat February 7-9. It's likely we'll be back in the same position again in early February - this time with the debt ceiling rapidly approaching in March.
Tuesday, January 23, 2018
SENATE:
Armed Services - closed briefing on the Nuclear Posture Review.
Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs: Hearings to examine the nominations of Jelena McWilliams, of Ohio, to be Chairperson of the Board of Directors, and to be a Member of the Board of Directors, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Marvin Goodfriend, of Pennsylvania, to be a Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Thomas E. Workman, of New York, to be a Member of the Financial Stability Oversight Council.
Energy and Natural Resources: An oversight hearing to examine the performance of the electric power system in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic during recent winter weather events, including the bomb cyclone.
Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions: Hearings to examine facing 21st century public health threats, focusing on our Nation's preparedness and response capabilities.
Commerce, Science, and Transportation: Subcommittee on Surface Transportation and Merchant Marine Infrastructure, Safety and Security: Hearings to examine surface transportation security, focusing on addressing current and emerging threats.
Armed Services: Subcommittee on Cybersecurity: Closed hearings to examine cyber warfighting policy.
Wednesday, January 24, 2018
Aging: Hearings to examine turning 65, focusing on navigating critical decisions to age well.
Judiciary: Hearings to examine pending nominations.
Budget: An oversight hearing to examine the Congressional Budget Office.
Armed Services l Subcommittee on Strategic Forces: To receive a closed briefing on global nuclear developments.
Armed Services l Subcommittee on Personnel: Hearings to examine officer personnel management and the Defense Officer Personnel Management Act of 1980.
Thursday, January 25, 2018
Armed Services: Hearings to examine global challenges and United States national security strategy.
Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs: Hearings to examine Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States reform, focusing on Administration perspectives on the essential elements.
Commerce, Science, and Transportation: Hearings to examine the Wireless Emergency Alert system.
Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs l Subcommittee on Investigations: Hearings to examine combating the opioid crisis, focusing on exploiting vulnerabilities in international mail.
Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions: Hearings to examine reauthorizing the Higher Education Act, focusing on access and innovation.
Intelligence: To receive a closed briefing on certain intelligence matters.
Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions: Hearings to examine the nomination of Frank T. Brogan, of Pennsylvania, to be Assistant Secretary for Elementary and Secondary Education, Department of Education.
PAKISTAN AND THE U.S.: AT THE FORK? Read General Dan Christman's latest missive on the U.S. state of play in Pakistan here.
SAUDI MINISTER TALKS ABOUT KEEPING PRODUCTION CUT BAND TOGETHER IN 2019 AMID RISING U.S. PRODUCTION: Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle believes this US production narrative will dominate the discussion at least through 1H 2018 and weigh on prices. Read his note here.
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWNS JUST AIN'T WHAT THEY USED TO BE: Our Senior Health Policy analyst writes on the impact a shutdown will have on Federal health policy. Read her note here.
