Takeaway: OPEC meets Nov 30 in Vienna. Minister Khelil believes oversupply in H1 2018 will require a 9-month extension by OPEC to balance the market.


Monday, November 20, 2017

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Hedgeye held its OPEC meeting preview conference call on Monday with the former Algerian Energy Minister and former OPEC President Chakib Khelil regarding next week’s OPEC meeting on November 30 in Vienna.  Click here for the call replay.

In the call, Minister Khelil took us inside the OPEC decision making process and discussed the following topics:

  • His and OPEC’s view of current market conditions.
  • Geopolitical risk from Saudi corruption probe and leadership transition.
  • His belief that a production oversupply in H1 2018 requires a 9-month extension to balance the market in the second half of the year.
  • Despite Russian energy companies’ opposition to more cuts, he believes Russia will ultimately agree to an extension.
  • His view that 2018 demand will be closer to the OPEC forecast of around 1.5 million b/d.

The call was hosted by Hedgeye'a Senior Energy Policy Analyst Joe McMonigle who will also be in Vienna to attend the OPEC meeting.