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To help contextualize this morning's market moves around the world, below are insights and analysis from our research and Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough's Twitter feed.
It's Coming... Europe Slowing
The IMF upgraded it's full-year 2017 outlook for the Eurozone last week (to 2.1% from 1.9%). But the worst may be yet to come especially for countries in the South of Europe. As we noted recently, the outlook for Italy looks awful, with demographic trends and household consumption both moving in the wrong direction.
The latest news out of Spain is that Madrid inched closer to imposing central rule over Catalonia, an autonomous region of Spain that recently held an unsanctioned voted for it's own independence. The Spanish government jailed two leaders of separatist organizations, Jordi Cuixart and Jordi Sànchez.
Heads up: The Spanish economy is slowing just as these geopolitical risks are ratcheting up. The Spanish IBEX is down -7% from its May highs.
Don't Be a Macro Tourist
U.K. inflation hit the highest rate in five years. Inflation climbed to 3% in September, up from 2.9% in August. But don't get too excited about this because the market was way in front of this move. The British Pound is up +7% versus the U.S. dollar year-to-date.
Sending #RocketMan A Message...
Despite concerns about a nuclear North Korea, South Korea's Kospi is up +22.7% year-to-date.
The Critical Catalyst for Gold
Dollar Up, Rates Up... Gold doesn't like that. From their September lows, the U.S. dollar index is up +2.5% and 10-year Treasury yield is up 30 basis points. Over that same period, Gold is down -5%.
Not a Joke... Living in 'Shipping Containers'
In the post below, Hedgeye Demography guru Neil Howe digs into five interesting demographic trends, including Millennials living in shipping containers. Yes, shipping containers.
By the way... Introducing Market Edges
We recently launched Market Edges, a weekly newsletter contextualizing key economic data within big picture macro trends. To read a complimentary version of the latest edition click the link below. (Give it a try. Here's a free month of Market Edges.)
Want to better understand the big picture macro market developments? Get a free month of our newly launched weekly newsletter Market Edges.