We have witnessed how huge weather events like Hurricanes Harvey and Irma can affect the U.S. economy in the short term. But does weather actually have a noticeable, long-term impact on economic consumption on a macro level?
According to Hedgeye Macro and Housing analyst Christian Drake, “yes and no, like a lot of things.”
“If it’s unseasonably warm and people never buy winter clothes, that’s demand that’s deferred and not coming back,” Drake says in the video above. “But largely these weather effects manifest as time shifts in consumption.”
Housing is obviously one of the more weather sensitive sectors, he says, especially if a winter is particularly snowy. Ever try digging a foundation in the dead of winter?
“People try to parse these numbers and tactically manage the difference between expectations in real-time, but it mostly just represents deferred consumption in terms of its impact,” Drake says.
Watch the clip above for more.
