TRUMP’S PRESCRIPTION: After months without a repeal and replace of Obamacare, President Trump is taking matters into his own hands. The Executive Order (EO) he plans to sign this week, in an attempt to give consumers more coverage options, is expected to expand cheaper, less regulated insurance plans and allow coverage to be sold across state lines. The EO will also roll back a handful of Obama-era policies such as a 90-day limit to short-term insurance plans. Trump will enact these policies, including allowing funds from health savings accounts to pay premiums, through his agencies which he is directing to limit the burdens of Obamacare wherever possible. The worry is without comprehensive health reform this EO could allow for healthy people to exit the ACA exchanges leaving behind the most expensive patients, spooking insurers and raising rates.
TAX CREDITS FOR FAMILIES: Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner are hosting dinners at their house this week to lobby for a key provision in tax reform - expanding the child tax credit. The credit helps families afford child care, boosting productivity and income, according to the growing number of Republicans who agree on the measure. Senators Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Mike Lee (R-UT) have been pushing for the expansion; however, other conservatives are focused on expanding the earned income tax credit. A study shows this credit will actually aid in child care costs more and create flexibility within a family. For every deduction expanded, Republicans will have to find another “pay for” to keep from adding to the deficit.
IT’S FOR CHARITY: Representative Mark Walker (R-NC) is introducing a new charitable deduction for those who don’t itemize their deductions. The goal is to target charitable giving for the low and middle class. Walker chairs the Republican Study Committee, the largest conservative group in the House. Charitable deductions are surprisingly not without controversy. Democrats fear Republicans will include lifting the Johnson Amendment in their tax package, which prevents tax-exempt organizations from contributing to political candidates - or turning your tax free charitable donation into a direct campaign contribution.
FREE TRADE’S POISON PILL: The U.S. is ready for the next round of NAFTA negotiations, but it seems their only plan is to diminish the deals influence over U.S. companies while imposing stricter standards on Mexico and Canada. Mexico worries that President Trump’s goals are meant as poison pills to sink the deal - such as the "sunset clause" requiring the countries to renegotiate every five years. But U.S. trade experts warn pulling out would endanger near $1 trillion in annual trade. The fourth round of deals will begin on the heels of Canadian PM Justin Trudeau’s visit to ensure NAFTA doesn’t fall apart.
KNOW BEFORE YOU OWE: Congress has begun tackling another CFPB rule. The TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure (TRID) rule affects title insurance and how it discloses its fees on loan estimates and closing disclosures. Representative French Hill (R-AR) says the CFPB is unwilling to fix the rule on its own and has introduced legislation with Representative Ruben Kihuen (D-NV) in a rare bipartisan move to create more transparency in home financing. The timeline for the bill is unknown and Republicans have their hands full with tax reform, but limiting the reach of the CFPB is a major goal for Congressional Republicans during the Trump-era.
TODAY: ENERGY CONFERENCE: DEPUTY ENERGY SECRETARY AND FORMER OPEC PRESIDENT HEADLINE IN NEW YORK CITY: Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle is hosting a Hedgeye energy conference in New York City. Topics include regulating pipelines, grid reliability and energy infrastructure in the Trump Administration - as well as an OPEC meeting preview and a special panel discussion on the U.S. pullout of the Iran nuclear deal. Get the event details here.
ARMY TO EMPHASIZE MODERNIZATION OVER GROWTH; ANNOUNCES SIX PRIORITIES: Our Senior Defense Analyst Emo Gardner writes that Army leadership streamlines its modernization bureaucracy; intends to trade size for modernity and lethality. Read the full piece here.
TRUMP’S POWER POLITICS: EPA REPEAL OF OBAMA CARBON RULE AND DOE PROPOSAL TO AID COAL/NUCLEAR: Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle writes - the EPA issued notice of repeal for Obama's Clean Power Plan while DOE urges FERC to compensate coal and nuclear generation for grid reliability. Read the full piece here.
SENATE DEMS TARGET T-MOBILE/SPRINT (TMUS, S, T, VZ): Our Senior Telecom Analyst Paul Glenchur writes Senate Democrats want the DOJ and FCC to prep now for the coming deal, but Capitol Hill influence on deal review is limited. Read the full piece here.
EVENT | 4Q 2017 HEALTH CARE THEMES: Our Senior Health Analyst Emily Evans invites you to watch live here.
