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JT TAYLOR: CAPITAL BRIEF - JT   Potomac banner 2  1

THE CHUCK AND NANCY SHOW: President Trump and his new friends sealed the deal to raise the debt ceiling, extend government funding and extend the National Flood Insurance Program while providing disaster relief for Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The deal cleared through Senate 80-17, but will face stronger opposition in the House when it is voted on today. Many members of Republican Caucuses in the House like the Republican Study Committee (150 members) and the Freedom Caucus (~40 members) have promised to vote no, leaving a majority of Democrats and Ryan loyalists to muscle the bill to passage. We think the deal, contrary to the herd mentality, is good for buying Republicans more time to consolidate their fall agenda, ultimately passing a budget that gives them the ability to do tax reform. What it’s not good for is thawing relations between Trump and Republican leaders on Capitol Hill.

THREE'S COMPANY: Senators Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Dean Heller (R-NV), and Bill Cassidy (R-LA) are reviving the health care debate again with their block grant proposal and one key ally - Donald Trump. The proposition has gained new steam since a White House advisor close to Trump said he would sign the bill today. Meanwhile the most crucial health care vote, Senator John McCain (R-AZ), came out in favor of it. Since the Cassidy-Graham-Heller proposal would be considered as an amendment to the American Health Care Act of 2017, if Congress wants to pass it, they will need to use reconciliation by September 30th. Luckily, their calendar was just cleared. It is still a longshot, but if Congressional Republicans want to prevent Trump from doing deals with Democrats, they need to show they can move agenda items - the seven year Obamacare repeal promise would be a nice start.

MO’ MONEY, NO PROBLEM: Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin touted Trump’s deal as a way for Republicans to solidify their plans for government spending and the debt ceiling and ensure the government stays open during this critical time. We think it is more about getting reconciliation language and an FY18 budget passed, setting the stage for a massive tax reform effort inside and outside of Washington. Republicans have their eyes on the tax reform prize and so do influential business lobbies. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce along with the Business Council of New York State are launching seven-figure advertisements targeting vulnerable moderate Republicans and the White House released their simple message - lower individual taxes, a simpler code, corporations with higher profits and money from overseas means more money for you.

SEARCHING FOR HIGHER GROUND: In the wake of Harvey, unprecedented flooding in Texas and Louisiana, and Irma nearing Florida, the Senate took the first step in extending the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) - but what does that mean for the water soaked Gulf Coast? The program makes flood insurance affordable for thousands of homeowners and reduces the cost through proper flood management and recovery efforts, but it is not without flaws. The government has to keep allocating more money to disaster areas because FEMA is underfunded for the scope of what it needs to accomplish. The CBO estimates the NFIP will fall short by $1.4 billion this year. For cities on the the Gulf Coast, and the epicenter of American Energy, this program is necessary - but it needs to be reformed in order to mitigate debt raising higher with the waters - it will have to wait until December for now.

NOMINATIONS ACCELERATE: President Trump has been widely criticized for the glacial pace at which he was filling cabinet and subcabinet positions over the past seven to eight months. He was most recently panned for going into hurricane season without a Department of Homeland Security Secretary, a director for the National Hurricane Center, or a head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - along with other key positions in disaster response agencies. But Mother Nature may be one major factor forcing his hand. Relief, recovery, and repair efforts cannot be accomplished with a skeletal government. FEMA, SBA, HUD and other agencies are working around the clock with limited resources to address the disaster in Texas while prepping for Irma. And Trump is stepping up. Since the storm, he has nominated 66 positions and made five appointments - many in Gulf Coast states.


CALL INVITE  TODAY | EXPOSING HEALTH CARE'S OUTLOOK: Our Senior Health Policy Analyst Emily Evans is hosting a video conference call and live Q&A today, September 8th at 11am. Get the event details here.

CALL INVITE | DISH NETWORK (DISH): Our Senior Telecom and Cable Analyst Paul Glenchur is hosting a call discussing the regulatory outlook and agenda for Dish Network with its Senior VP and Deputy Counsel, Jeff Blum, September 20th at 11am. Get the dial-in here.

EVENT: FORMER OPEC PRESIDENT & NEW FERC COMMISSIONER HEADLINE OCT 11 HEDGEYE ENERGY CONFERENCE:  Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle is hosting a Hedgeye energy conference in New York City. Topics include regulating pipelines, grid reliability, energy infrastructure in the Trump Administration, and an OPEC meeting preview. Get the event details here.