YOU MAY SAY I’M A DREAMER: As expected, the Administration rescinded the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) - an Obama era policy put in place after Congress failed to pass the DREAM Act. DACA allowed for children brought to the U.S. at a young age, lived here for the majority of their lives, attended school and had no criminal record avoid deportation and gain work visas. Republicans are divided on the issue; AG Jeff Sessions and others believe it takes away from American jobs, but some Republicans believe it is good for our economy. A new study by FWD.US shows that 91% of the “dreamers” are employed and are expected to contribute an estimated $433 billion to GDP over the next decade. Most Republicans (some Democrats too) believe Trump did the right thing by punting the issue back to Congress giving them six months to enact legislation for dreamers, but this could quickly become the first spark in a Republican Civil War.
DEBT LIMIT DILEMMA: Congressional leaders have few working days left before they need to address the debt limit or risk default and a government shutdown. The Administration and other leaders are pushing for a clean raise, but even with Republicans controlling every chamber, there is still an intraparty chasm. Members of the Freedom Caucus were seen with Steve Bannon plotting how best to oppose leadership - and it's not just on borrowing limits. It is reportedly on everything. Many expected Hurricane Harvey relief funding to be tied to the debt ceiling making it more difficult to vote against raising it, but that didn’t scare the Caucus which still plans to oppose the legislation. The House has since introduced a standalone relief package matching the White House’s request for $7.85 billion that will be voted on today.
WAGING WAR: President Trump threatened not a nuclear war, but a trade war with all countries willing to do business with North Korea in response to their increasingly hostile behavior over the weekend. A trade freeze with countries like China would leave a devastating impact on the world economy. China accounted for an estimated 90 percent of Pyongyang's $2.9 billion in exports last year but they are also the largest trading partner to the U.S. including $463 billion in imports and $116 billion in exports last year. This week, two Congressional committees will meet to discuss the best way to sanction countries and persons affiliated with North Korea.
THE BIG SIX AND POTUS FOCUS: We are one day into the fall agenda and tax reform is already being dwarfed despite efforts by the Administration and Congressional leaders to keep it in the forefront. The Big Six met with President Trump yesterday where he pressed them for a simple overall and he will give a speech in North Dakota today focusing on the same thing - the complexity of the current tax code. The last time a complete overhaul was enacted during the Reagan Administration, it took over 22 months - this time around Congress is faced with a soft deadline of late Q1 / early Q2 of 2018 before the mid-term political season begins in earnest. There is a group of conservatives that believe Republicans are losing their fiscal way - meaning leadership needs to find a way to offset tax cuts or prepare for a showdown.
BACK IN BLACK: The House is expected to pass their remaining eight Appropriation Bills in one super minibus. The House Committee on Rules is working through the nearly 900 amendments submitted for the legislative minibus introduced by Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA) to decide what will go to a floor vote. Speaker Ryan wants to get spending bills passed swiftly increasing their chances of passing a FY18 before the end of September. The House Budget Chair Dianne Black worked tirelessly on getting an FY18 out of committee on time, but it has yet to reach the floor. A consensus on the budget will be difficult but the pressure for tax reform makes not passing it - not an option.
DON’T MISS OUR RUNDOWN OF THE FALL LEGISLATIVE AGENDA HERE.
DONALD AND DETERRENCE: WORDS MATTER Our Senior Adviser General Dan Christman wrote Kim Jong Un is bent on accelerating his nuclear weapons plans; in reality, there is very little the U.S., our regional allies, or even China, can do to make him back away from a course he views as existential for his regime. Read the full piece here.
EVENT: FORMER OPEC PRESIDENT & NEW FERC COMMISSIONER HEADLINE OCT 11 HEDGEYE ENERGY CONFERENCE: Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle is hosting an energy conference in New York. Topics include Regulating Pipelines, Grid Reliability, Energy Infrastructure in the Trump Admin, and an OPEC Meeting Preview. Get the event details here.
CALL INVITE: EXPOSING HEALTH CARE'S OUTLOOK: Our Senior Health Policy Analyst Emily Evans is hosting a video conference call and live Q&A on Friday, September 8th at 11am. Get the event details here.
#ACA2.0 | HEALTH CARE EMPLOYMENT +2.1% IN AUGUST: Our Senior Health Policy Analyst Emily Evans wrote Health Care and hospital employment continue their downward trend at +2.1% and +1.7% YoY in August. Read the full piece here.
