HEALTH MARY PASS: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is planning a vote on health care reform at 2:15pm today - featuring a surprise appearance by Senator John McCain (R-AZ) who actually ‘threatened’ to drive cross-country to get to Washington. McConnell can still only afford two defectors and the whip count shows he’s not there yet - and while it may not be an easy feat, the remaining wavering 7-9 Senators are all viewed as attainable - except Senator Susan Collins (R-ME). On the other end of Penn Avenue, President Trump has amped up the political pressure for replacing the ACA, meeting with Obamacare victims and then doubling down in a speech aimed at Senate Republicans, “fix what has been so badly broken… through replacement of a horrible, disaster known as Obamacare.”
WHEELS ON THE BUS: In their final week before the summer recess, there is one surprising thing missing from the House’s agenda: the expected budget vote. House Budget Chair Diane Black’s (R-TN) FY18 budget came out of committee last week after months of herding cats, but wrangling 218 votes is proving to be elusive so far. Another notable calendar item - the Appropriations Committee will vote on a minibus that combines four of the 12 spending bills: the Department of Defense Appropriations Act, the Legislative Branch Appropriations Act, the Military Construction, Veteran Affairs and Related Agencies Act, and the Energy and Water Development Appropriations Act which account for 66% of discretionary spending.
PAYING THE TOLL: We figured out why Newt Gingrich was seen lurking the halls of the Capitol building last week - he is launching a massive lobbying effort backed by small businesses across the country, seeking tax relief. Their goal is to get Congress to focus on tax immediately and specifically on small business tax cuts. But Congress has a way to go to figure it all out - mainly, how to pay for the tax cuts as many Republicans are opposed to adding to the deficit. Plans to pay for them have yet to gain traction: OMB Director Mulvaney wants to introduce an infrastructure tax, Senator John Thune (R-SD) believes taxing the shared economy could pay for them, and many in leadership are still pushing the border adjustment tax (BAT) - which seems to have little life left.
SAME OL OPEC: Oil prices settled up yesterday after OPEC scolded Iraq and other producers, demanding they improve their compliance with the production cut agreement. Saudi Arabia also officially announced it would reduce August exports to a record low of 6.6 million b/d compared to 6.9 million b/d in June. The Saudis are continuing their strategy that started in May of reducing exports to the U.S. in order to impact draws in weekly EIA petroleum data. The real problem for OPEC - Libya and Nigeria have continued to add oil to the market, and we expect a new push to get them on board with market stabilization efforts. Our Senior Energy Analyst Joseph McMonigle wrote about the meeting, read his full piece here.
A BETTER DEAL?: The Democrats are still trying to reposition themselves following their presidential upset in 2016. Having a unified message bolstered their election gains in the mid-2000’s. But there has been a recent split - some Democrats want to pull the party as far left as possible while Blue Dogs are simultaneously advocating for a moderate approach. The old dogs, Representative Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) unveiled a new agenda for the duration of the Trump Administration focusing on education, cutting daily household expenses, and workforce training programs.
EVENT INVITE | U.S. ENERGY SANCTIONS & VENEZUELA: IS IT TRUMP'S RED LINE? White House raises the stakes for Maduro if he goes through with July 30th election. Big impact for Gulf refiners, oil markets, and bond holders. Please join us for a black book style call WEDNESDAY JULY 26th 1:30pm ET. Get the event details here.
REPLAY | QUARTERLY POLICY THEMES CALL: We had roundtable conversation with our policy team on major policy issues developing in Washington. Watch a teaser here, or watch the full replay here.
REPLAY | DRUG PRICING AND APPROVAL POLICY - IT'S A NEW DAY: Our Senior Health Policy Analyst Emily Evans gave a rundown of all the major drug pricing and policy trends at the state and federal levels including 340B and generics approval. Listen to the replay here.
