MCCONNELL'S GORDIAN KNOT: Just before lunch today, Republican Senators will be meeting to discuss a new health care bill. They are expected to vote on that very bill next week following the impending CBO score. With no other viable options for repeal and replace, it’s hard to imagine Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell won't find a way to bridge the gap between conservatives and moderates, but he’s not there yet. The benefits of voting “yes” largely outweigh “no,” both politically and substantively, as even Democrats are admitting that Obamacare is failing, premiums are skyrocketing and constituents are desperate for more affordable options - and it’s only going to get worse. While Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) thinks his amendment is the only way to give individuals flexibility from the constraints of the ACA, a measure already in the bill gives small businesses the ability to provide insurance without Obamacare provisions if it is through a member-based association. And, that’s appealing to Senator Rand Paul (R-KY), who argues mandates have burdened small businesses the most. Our Senior Health Policy Analyst Emily Evans wrote about the pros and cons of a passing vote, get her insight here.
SPENDING PENDING: Despite not having top numbers for the FY18 budget, the House Appropriations Committee plans to move the remaining nine spending bills out of committee by the end of the week. Chairman Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ) wants floor action before the House departs for summer recess. So far we’ve seen massive EPA cuts (though nothing like President Trump wanted), Department of Interior cuts, and $1.6 billion for a border wall. The highly controversial wall has the potential to sink the bill and could trigger a government shutdown down the line. We aren’t focusing on that just yet, as a new study shows President Trump’s budget will raise the deficit to almost 80% of GDP, an actual problem for Congressional Republicans. Stay tuned for the CBO score anticipated today.
ANOTHER FIDUCIARY RULE FIGHT: A new fight to overturn the Fiduciary Rule, which requires almost all retirement advisers to meet fiduciary standards, is being fought by House Republicans in the Financial Services Committee. Representative Ann Warner (R-WO) has introduced a new bill that would replace the rule with a “best interest standard” meant to protect consumers without causing commission-based advisers their jobs. If the current rule remains and forces many consumers to switch retirement advisers, ETF’s and mutual funds will continue to square off for the new business.
SIMMERING SANCTIONS: Some Senate Republicans are urging Secretary of State Rex Tillerson not to certify Iran’s compliance with the Iranian nuclear deal in an attempt for permission to add sanctions on the country. The EU has rebutted the call by saying the deal is not just for the U.S. to decide. What some of these Congressional members really want are sanctions on Russia, which are attached to those on Iran. The House has yet to vote on the Russia/Iran sanctions bill despite the Senate fixing a procedural hurdle, and while the Administration’s opposition is a factor for Republican leaders, the flurry of lobbyists from massive U.S. corporations is an even bigger reason to stall. Now House Democrats are introducing their own legislation “identical to the Senate’s,” posing a political challenge to the president. Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle, wrote on the impact of sanctions to the energy industry, get the full piece here.
THE PRICE OF TRAVEL: You can almost hear the collective sigh of relief from travel professionals, as House Appropriations indicated that they would not be cutting funding to Brand USA. Brand USA is a private-public partnership who markets for travel to the U.S. They are responsible for supporting an estimated 50,000 jobs a year and $1 billion in business sales. The bill also nixed President Trump’s desire for raising passenger security fees (PSFs), which the airline lobby strongly opposes since they wouldn’t recover that portion of ticket cost. A more notable rejection in the bill - it did not uncap passenger facility charges (PFCs), which like PSFs are attached to ticket price, but are reinvested into airport infrastructure. Uncapping PFCs could correct a beef of Trumps, “our airports are like a third world country.”
ON THE BRINK: Aimed at sanctioning North Korea, Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) and Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) introduced a bill to penalize banks and individuals that finance the regime. The Senate Banking Committee will consider the bill which has bipartisan support for closing loopholes in current UN sanctions on the country. Toomey’s bill also dovetails with the Trump Administration’s effort announced earlier this summer aimed at cracking down on Chinese banks, a shipping company and two individuals access to U.S. markets.
CALL TODAY | THE ART OF THE DEAL - TRUMP V. NAFTA: We are hosting a conference call with John Murphy of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce today, July 13th at 11:00AM ET on the timeline for NAFTA renegotiations, the emerging contours of the Administration’s strategy, and the implications on trade and the the U.S. economy. Get the event details here.
CALL INVITE | 3Q17 HEALTH CARE THEMES PRESENTATION: Our Senior Health Policy Analyst Emily Evans will be updating and expanding on existing themes and presenting new work during our 3Q17 themes call on Monday, July 17th at 1PM ET. Get the dial-in details here.
REMEMBER IPAB? 2017 MIGHT BE THE YEAR (BUT IT PROBABLY WON’T MATTER MUCH): Our Senior Health Policy Analyst Emily Evans writes the data seems to point to an IPAB trigger this year but we expect impact will be minimized as much as possible. Read the full piece here.
OPEC LOOKS TO FIX LEAKY CEILING WITH LIBYA/NIGERIA PRODUCTION CURBS: Our Senior Energy Analyst Joseph McMonigle writes exemptions for Libya and Nigeria have undermined OPEC deal by adding 800K B/D in new production. OPEC committee will meet July 24 in Russia. Get the full piece here.
