THEIR DAY IN COURT: In the final day of the SCOTUS session before summer break, the Justices agreed to hear a case about religious freedom involving a cake baker's objection to providing cakes for same-sex marriages out of religious disagreement potentially setting a precedent for corporations who take religious stances. The high court also heard the government’s appeal to allow President Trump’s temporary restriction (ban) on travel, granting Trump the ability to reinstate some parts of the travel ban, which would affect people from Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen. While they wait to rule on the full appeal, people who don't have a bona fide relationship with a person or entity in the U.S. will be barred from entry and people who can show that they have a relationship will be allowed into the country.
A HEALTHY LUNCH: Senate Republicans are hashing out the details of the bill that would repeal and replace Obamacare. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell remains confident they will be ready to vote only one week after releasing it to the full Senate. President Trump spoke, “from the heart” saying that the Senate bill was close to right and “would get there.” Shortly after, McConnell introduced a revised version of the bill, with the most notable change being a penalty for going uninsured. Disappointing numbers from the CBO score (22 mil without insurance) have some Republican Senators publicly voicing concerns, we expect more alterations to happen before a vote. The tally is now six Republicans against or leaning against the bill. Look for some indication of how McConnell intends to proceed after Republicans meet over lunch today given that procedural votes need to begin tomorrow in order for a final vote to take place on Friday. And, listen to what the new health bill means from a call with our Senior Health Policy Analyst Emily Evans here.
STEELING FOR A SHOWDOWN: Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has been investigating whether steel imports threaten domestic security, and has given President Trump the unilateral ability to change trade policy if it does. The Administration, through the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, may impose tariffs or limit quotas on steel imports, though the White House previously stated any change in policy would be protecting the status quo not limiting the current number of imports, some analysts are worried about the economic implications of pulling such an extreme trigger (only been used twice before). A move against free market economics, stocks are already moving- predicting the price of steel to go up which could end up hurting the U.S. steel industry. Expect swings in companies who use steel in their production process- best put, “you have to look at the whole supply chain.” Despite the policy targeting China, countries in the UK are worried and promising retaliatory action, not to mention the diplomatic fallout from other stalwart allies with whom we import the most: Canada, Japan, and Mexico.
RESHAPING NAFTA: The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative is holding a public hearing on NAFTA today - seeking comments on “matters relevant to the modernization” of the trade agreement. We expect groups with strong stakes in the issue, like the National Association of Manufacturers, transportation and oil and gas companies to submit input to the Administration, potentially impacting the contours of the new deal. Renegotiations can officially begin August 16th, and as one of President Donald Trump’s top campaign priorities, we think he’s looking for a big win here. We’ll be hosting a conference call on this topic next month.
MARKET MODERNIZATION: The House Financial Services Committee is set to look at the structure of U.S. equity markets today as part of a broader series evaluating the strength of our financial systems since the 2008 crisis. Topic number one: the modernization of the securities market which has been practically unchanged since the Securities Act Amendments of 1975, despite vast technological advancements in the industry. They are calling on industry professionals to weigh in on automated trading, and how to shape legislation around the virtual market place.
EPA WILL PROPOSE TO MAINTAIN HIGHER ETHANOL & RENEWABLE FUEL VOLUMES FOR 2018: Senior Energy Analyst Joseph McMonigle writes Trump tells Iowa Rally Wednesday: “We’re saving your ethanol industries.” Corn politics pushing Administration to a pro-RFS posture. Read the whole story here.
AT&T'S PUBLIC SAFETY NETWORK WIN AND STATE OPT-OUTS: Our Senior Telecomm/Cable Analyst Paul Glenchur writes AT&T's FirstNet contract win would be impaired if major states opt out of the network. We think opt-out risk is limited.You can read the full piece here.
