MITCH’S PITCH: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is a very deliberate man and may care less about his critics than you think - his cloak and dagger approach was a strategic move to give him control of the bill by incorporating opinions spanning the ideological spectrum from Maine Senator Susan Collins to Texas Senator Ted Cruz - before making the bill “public.” Even if McConnell didn’t choose the traditional democratic route, it might be the only reason Senate is able to pass a bill and move on to McConnell’s real objective, tax reform. A moderate bill would have the “heart” President Donald Trump is pushing for and lean towards the eight wavering Republican Senators who have expanded Medicaid in their states as opposed to the three far-right Senators who want Medicaid dismantled. Key measures on the table include Medicaid reform, tax credits v. subsidies, and essential benefits like protecting patients with pre-existing conditions.
SANCTIONS SETBACK: The House has flagged the Senate’s Russia sanctions bill for violating the Constitution and delaying it indefinitely before it reaches the president's desk. While House Republicans acknowledge bipartisan support (winning the Senate 98-2) they say the bill must be revised in order for them to take it up; revenue bills need to start in the House and they’ll have to “initiate” the process from scratch causing further delays. Senator John McCain (R-AZ) is peeved that Russia has suffered no punishment from Congress since election hacks were brought to light. And then there’s Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) who thinks this is all a ploy from the Administration to buy them time to cut deals with Russian officials. Senators sent a quick-fix to the House last night but it is up to them to accept it. Russia has cancelled meetings with the Trump Administration in the wake of rising tensions, making a statement towards the U.S. about retaliatory sanctions. The House bill is likely to mirror the Senate’s, focusing on sanctioning Russia’s economy through mining, metals, shipping and railway.
OUT OF THE SWAMP AND ONTO THE TRAIL: Campaign-style events are where Trump flourishes and he did not hold back last night in Iowa blaming Democrats for being obstructionist, boasting over the promises he’s kept, and the future of America under his leadership. Most interesting was his promise to grow ethanols and biofuels through reducing regulation on corn farmers, which may directly contradict Republicans’ goal of lowering renewable fuel standards (RFS). Our senior energy analyst Joe McMonigle will have more RFS today.
TECH TALKS CONTINUE: A rare alliance between the Administration and tech companies continues today, as they meet for a series of smaller breakout working sessions. Industry leaders will get the chance to talk to President Donald Trump and his advisors about the issues that matter most to them and we expect them to press their concerns over the environment, censorship, and immigration as well as the importance of technology in education. Some tech CEO’s look to the future saying coding should be taught in all schools and, working in tandem with last week’s emphasis on “workforce development,” may present greater opportunities for apprenticeships in a technology-savvy economy.
GEN. DAN CHRISTMAN DISCUSSES TRUMP’S EMERGING FOREIGN POLICY DOCTRINE: Hedgeye hosted a call with our Senior Advisor General Dan Christman to discuss the dimensions and dynamics of President Trump's emerging foreign policy doctrine five months into office. Don’t worry if you missed it, we have the replay here.
THE MACRO SHOW HEALTH POLICY EDITION WITH EMILY EVANS: Senior Health Analyst Thomas Tobin and Senior Health Policy Analyst Emily Evans hosted the Macro Show and provided their outlook for the week ahead in Washington as it relates to health policy. Catch the replay here.
SAUDI SPECIAL ELECTION, MBS ELEVATION TO CROWN PRINCE MAY BRING BIG OIL MOVES: Senior Energy Analyst Joseph McMonigle writes 2018 Aramco IPO, CP Salman’s signature proposal, needs higher oil price for success. More aggressive posture with Iran also expected. Read the whole story here.
