Below is a sneak peek inside Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough's macro notebook, an early morning note sent to subscribers each day.
1. OIL
Buy the cartel’s rumors and sell the news – WTI spanked after tapping the top-end of my risk range yesterday and I don’t think it’s any more complicated than that; with Oil’s Volatility Signal (OVX) at 31 and climbing, Oil looks like Reflation’s Rollover to me – should stay in this $45-52 range unless the math changes.
2. S&P 500
Politics or process? Thank goodness mainstream media still thinks markets trade on their Trump fears! With the S&P 500’s implied volatility DISCOUNT (vs. 30 day realized vol) diving into the down-double-digit (-10%) zone, this looks like a pure and unadulterated capitulation of the bears to me.
3. VIX
Measuring and mapping the volatility of volatility remains core to any fractal process – immediate-term risk range for front month VIX is flashing an 8-handle on the downside this morning (VIX range = 8.90-11.71); an 8-9 VIX will most definitely drive non-linear behavior!
Speaking of volatility (or lack thereof)...
