This special guest commentary was written by Dr. Pippa Malmgren, founder of economic consultancy DRPM Group. Click here to watch her recent discussion with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in, "Pippa Malmgren Unplugged: Investing In An Age of Global Angst."
Marine LePen, the nationalist French Presidential candidate, recently clearly characterized the political choice of our times this way: "You are either a patriot or a globalist". This is the stark choice voters everywhere believe they are facing. Patriots choose Trump, Brexit, LePen. Globalists got for Clinton, Remain and Macron, the other French Presidential candidate.
But, is the choice so stark? Can you be a patriotic globalist? Can national interests and global interests be aligned?
That was the underlying premise of the post-war International Liberal Order. That is precisely what voters everywhere have turned against (see explanations by Niall Ferguson and Fareed Zakaria - both of whom strangely make a great case for reforming it!). Can you be a global patriot? Perhaps Julian Assange and Wikileaks see themselves that way. They are patriotic to globalism which makes them hostile to national interests.
Another way to think about this is that the traditional Left/Right configuration is no longer serving the public. If we look around the world we see a common theme. The Right abandoned the nation and the national interest. The Left abandoned the workers and the poor. So, the supporters on both sides are increasingly anti-establishment. They are increasingly interested in new political leaders and new political parties who serve national interests and workers alike.
The strange thing is that the voters on both sides are no longer opposing each others views. Republicans in America now support higher wages for workers. Many on the left in France rather like Marine LePen's focus on national interests and may prove to be a swing vote for her. A recent poll showed that 65% of the left leaning voters will not vote for LePen. They would have voted for Mélenchon, the Left candidate, had he not been pushed out of the race. The press takes that as a clear sign that she won't win. But this means some 35% of left leaning French voters might support LePen. That would make a material difference to her chances of winning.
China's One Belt One Road: A Shining Example of Patriotic Globalism?
Perhaps the greatest example of patriotic globalism of global patriotism can be found in China's One Belt One Road strategy. This is China's grand plan to build global linkages to China by rail, road, air and sea. The workers will benefit from the opening up of new export markets. The consumer benefits from easier and cheaper access to global commodities. The nationalists get to see China's commercial and diplomatic power expand around the globe. The patriots see new income that will raise the standard of living and China's influence at the same time.
The question is - can any other country truly align their national interests with the interests of their workers? This is what Donald Trump purports to do. LePen says she can but everyone knows that a LePen win might well mean the bond markets in Europe can't open. She wants to exit the Euro, which would mean a dramatic fall would occur in the Euro if she won. That might help French and European workers (devaluation is always a gain for exporters) but will also encourage the globalists to move their money out of Europe or place capital anywhere but there.
Are you a globalist or a patriot? Come chat about this with me on Twitter and Instagram @DrPippaM
EDITOR'S NOTE
This is a Hedgeye Guest Contributor note written by Dr. Pippa Malmgren, founder of economic consultancy DRPM Group and author of the best-selling book “Signals.” This piece does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Hedgeye.
