Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.
"I've got big shoes to fill. This is my chance to do something. I have to seize the moment."
-Andrew Jackson
LET’S MAKE A DEAL
The government shutdown will be averted after Congressional negotiators reached a deal to fund the government through the end of September. Republicans were able to secure $1.5 billion for border security (but not a cent for construction of the border wall) and $15 billion in additional defense spending.
The Democrats secured funding for the NIH, Puerto Rico and sanctuary cities and the fact that Planned Parenthood will remain funded for the rest of FY 17 shows that the Dems got almost got everything on their wishlist. With Republicans struggles to pass a health care law - it no secret that Democrats are feeling more emboldened that they can either bolster or block Trump’s agenda.
LIMPING TOWARDS THE FINISH LINE
This week could be the make or break moment for the AHCA. Following the addition of the Meadows-MacArthur amendment, Republicans are working to garner enough votes to pass the House. The House will start another weeklong recess starting Thursday so the pressure is on Republican leaders to get a vote in before they head home and lose momentum. Republicans can only stand to lose 22 votes and still pass the legislation and, as of this writing, they still don’t know if they’ll have the votes to pass it. This has been quite the headache for House leadership especially with Trump turning up the pressure to get it done and with some over in the West Wing calling on Speaker Ryan to keep the House in session until they do so - even if it means cutting into their sacrosanct break.
TECH SHIFT
President Trump is establishing an American Technology Council to help the government deliver better digital services. This Council is part of Jared Kushner’s White House Office of American Innovation aiming to unite the government with the private sector. As part of the unveiling of the new council, 20 leading technology CEOs will participate in working sessions to talk about the bipartisan issue of modernizing the government. Kushner is very passionate about the critical need to modernize IT services in the government and will use the council to coordinate strategy with other departments and agencies.
PERSONNEL IS POLICY - FED EDITION
President Trump took office with two vacancies on the Fed’s Board of Governors, and he got a third when de facto banking czar Daniel Tarullo stepped down last month. One of these three positions will take the never-filled Vice Chairman for Supervision position, and another will have a community banking background.
Further, with uncertainty surrounding the reappointment of septuagenarians Chair Yellen and Vice Chairman Fischer – whose leadership terms both expire in 2018 – it is becoming increasingly more difficult to meaningfully predict medium- to long-term Fed interest rate, balance sheet, and regulatory policy. Signals, statements, and minutes still matter, but it will be these incoming personnel who will decide future policy.
STANDING GROUND
Trump has remained intolerant of North Korean aggression, but he appears open to the specifics of how he will deal with the regime. National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster has told South Korea the U.S. will pay for a missile defense system, contradicting some of the details but not the bigger picture of Trump’s North Korea policy. Trump wants the cat skinned, and he doesn't seem to have a preference for how his team does it.
100-DAY REPORT: BIGLY PROGRESS ON TRUMP ENERGY AGENDA
Our Senior Energy Policy Analyst Joe McMonigle writes that using Executive Orders, President Advances Agenda to Approve Pipelines, Reverse Obama Carbon Rule & Repeal Federal Bans on Production. You can find the full piece here.
US RIG-COVERY: SINCE OPEC CUTS, US HAS ADDED 172 OIL RIGS; US PRODUCTION BACK ABOVE 9 MBD
Our Senior Energy Policy Analyst Joe McMonigle writes that weekly data released Friday show US oil rig count is up 9 more rigs for total of 697 operating oil rigs in the US - up from 332 a year ago. You can read the full piece here.
KREMLINOLOGY: UNDERSTANDING TRUMP FOREIGN POLICY
General Dan Christman writes about how we can better understand how President Trump arrives at decisions on foreign policy. You can find the full piece here.
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