DID THE U.S. INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY BOTTOM IN 2016?
That’s the current bull versus bear debate raging on Wall Street (and one that currently favors the bulls).
Since June 30th, the Industrials sector (XLI) is up 14.4%.
We’re not so sure this rally will prove long lasting however. As we’ve said before, the U.S. economy heading into the fourth quarter of 2016 is “not rainbows and puppy dogs but less horrible.” We also said don’t fight the data.
In the video above, McCullough lays out the current debate and explains how the industrial recession fits into the context of the broader economic cycle. Historically, industrials peak first and is closely followed by the broader economy.
That’s exactly what happened this go-round.
The top in the industrial economy was 2014 and was closely followed by GDP, which started to fall in March 2015. “It’s 100% probable that we had a recession on the industrial side of the economy… 100%,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. “It already happened.”
“So it’s not a debate as to why those people voted for Trump. “They’re in recession and they’re hoping that he can get the Rust Belt states out of recession,” McCullough says.
The more important question is will we have a recession ever again? “In the first quarter, a lot of people are going to start to ask that question again,” he says. We think the U.S. economy continues to slow.
