Let us ever remember that our interest is in concord, not in conflict; and that our real eminence rests in the victories of peace, not those of war.
- William McKinley
CRASHING THE TEA PARTY: Since 2010 the Tea Party has been a roadblock for the government blocking any legislation that did not coincide with their ideals. They are now teamed up with a Republican president, and Republican majorities in both the House and the Senate. The question they now face is can they govern? While the conservative caucus played its role well in stymying the government under President Obama, they now have to pass legislation or face scrutiny that they stand for nothing more than a protest vote.
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A WEEK MAKES: Just over a week ago we prepared a bullet talking about the likely challenges the Republican party and Reince Priebus would face given he would be the first RNC chair to lose two elections. Now the Democratic party is in disarray and Priebus is the designated Chief of Staff to the president-elect. Top Democrats are throwing their support behind MI Rep. Keith Ellison to take over the top job at the DNC, but Ellison is likely to have challengers in former DNC Chief/VT Governor Howard Dean and former MD Governor Martin O’Malley. Democrats who were assuming Clinton would be running for reelection in four years, now need to find strong leaders for their party not just for the immediate future, but 2020 as well.
Source: Washington Post
BATTLE STATIONS: President-elect Trump and Senator Elizabeth Warren engaged in major wars of the words throughout campaign 2016, and now their battle will move to the august chambers of Congress. The Trump Transition team and Republican allies on Capitol Hill are looking to dismantle Dodd-Frank and weaken or eliminate Warren’s pet Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Although Warren and her progressive comrade-in-arms Senator Bernie Sanders have both said they are willing to work with Trump, particularly on issues impacting the working class, progressives will fight tooth and nail to preserve and defend Wall Street reforms.
IN CASE YOU THOUGHT IT WAS OVER: Congress is back in session today for the first time in a month albeit only for a week. Looking to hand Donald Trump a clean slate, there is still a lot of unfinished business to tackle and funding the government before the December 9th is at the top of the list and House Republicans are again split on how to handle the issue. Some want to pass a stopgap measure through February 28th so they don’t have to work with President Obama and subsequently pass a full omnibus spending bill when Trump takes office in January. The other camp would rather give Trump a fresh start once he takes office and not have to worry about dealing with the perennially thorny spending measure. We have no doubt it will get done, but watch this space for early signs of Freedom Caucus unease...
RECONCILING THE PROCESS: Once the 115th Congress is sworn in less than two months from now, the repeal of Obamacare will be one of first issues they move out of the gate. With the lack of a filibuster proof margin in the Senate, the budget reconciliation process (where 51 votes are needed to pass) will likely be the vehicle - but that could impede their ability to take on comprehensive or corporate tax reform given the limitations of the reconciliation process.
Since Republicans have not passed a budget for 2017, there may be an opportunity to pass two budgets next year allowing them to use the reconciliation process twice (for both 2017 and 2018) - thereby allowing Congress to repeal the ACA and get the tax reform they’ve desperately wanted since 2009.
REPORT FROM RIYADH: Our Senior Energy Policy Analyst Joe McMonigle sent in an update from his travels in Saudi Arabia saying that a negative outlook continues for OPEC agreement to cut production. You can read the full piece here.
FIRST 100 DAYS: 10 INITIAL THOUGHTS ON CHANGES TO FEDERAL HEALTH POLICY AFTER INAUGURATION: Our Senior Health Policy Analyst Emily Evans gives ten thoughts about where we think the ACA and health care policy are heading. You can read the full piece here.
