After spending a couple of days meeting with officials in Saudi Arabia, I remain skeptical that OPEC will be able to get an agreement on a production cut as outlined in the Algeria meeting in late September.
Saudi Arabia would like an OPEC deal. But, unlike previous deals when the Saudis did all of the heavy lifting, the Kingdom wants other OPEC members to participate too. As we have seen over the past few weeks, this is akin herding cats.
Moreover, OPEC production in October has increased since the Algiers meeting, which would now translate into deeper cuts that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies would have to make. Deeper cuts for Saudi Arabia makes the deal less likely.
Iran and Iraq continue to present major impediments to an output deal. And with time running out before the November 30 OPEC meeting in Vienna, we may instead see a “Plan B.”
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This is an excerpt from an institutional research note written by Hedgeye Potomac Senior Energy Policy analyst Joe McMonigle. For more information about our research email, firstname.lastname@example.org.