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The Battleground: A Look at 6 States Which May Determine the Election - z map

The race for the White House was upended over the weekend with the FBI’s revelation of a new cache of emails found on disgraced former Congressman Anthony Weiner’s laptop that may be relevant to the investigation of Hillary Clinton’s private server.  Weiner is the estranged husband of top Hillary Clinton aide and confidante Huma Abedin.  With eight days left until Election Day - and knowing that the polling world is working overtime to gauge the impact in these states and on the race - we look at the state of play in the six states that we feel will determine the outcome of the election.  

(On a related note, we are hosting a special conference call with Charlie Cook - one of America’s leading authorities on politics and elections - at 4:00 ET today. Additional details below.)  

Florida 

As always, Florida and its 29 electoral votes is the bullseye for both campaigns. Clinton and Trump and their surrogates have camped out in the Sunshine State with the result being the closest polling in the country.  Real Clear Politics has Clinton leading by just over one point. Below is fivethirtyeight.com’s analysis of the race.

The Battleground: A Look at 6 States Which May Determine the Election - chart FLA

North Carolina 

North Carolina fits the definition of a true swing state as it has gone from Bush to Obama to Romney in the past three elections. Clinton and Michelle Obama campaigned in the Tarheel State last week as were Trump and running mate Mike Pence. Real Clear Politics has Clinton leading by two points. Below is fivethirtyeight.com’s analysis of the race.

The Battleground: A Look at 6 States Which May Determine the Election - chart NC

Ohio

The crown jewel of every presidential campaign as usual is a tight race. Trump leads by one point in a state where he has not received the endorsement of the popular Governor John Kasich or popular incumbent Senator Rob Portman who appears to be comfortably on his way to reelection. Below is fivethirtyeight.com’s latest analysis of the race.

The Battleground: A Look at 6 States Which May Determine the Election - chart OH

Pennsylvania

Donald Trump’s campaign has believed all along that PA is a state they can and must win. With some describing PA demographically as Pittsburgh in the west, Philadelphia in the east and Alabama in the middle - Clinton and Trump are playing to their relative strengths in the Keystone state. Real Clear Politics has Clinton up five. Below is fivethirtyeight.com’s latest analysis of the race.

The Battleground: A Look at 6 States Which May Determine the Election - chart PA

New Hampshire

Another must win state for Trump if he is going to break the 270 plane. Unfortunately for him - he has trailed in the Granite State since early August, but spent Friday there trying to narrow the gap between. Real Clear Politics shows Clinton with a seven point lead. Below is fivethirtyeight.com’s latest analysis of the race.

The Battleground: A Look at 6 States Which May Determine the Election - chart NH

Arizona

This is not a state anyone expected to be writing about with just over a week out to the election, but AZ is now a competitive state. At the end of September, the Grand Canyon State was solid red and the only worry for Republicans was about John McCain holding onto his seat. AZ is now neck and neck and will come down to the wire. Real Clear Politics has Clinton leading by more than a point. Below is fivethirtyeight.com’s latest analysis of the race.

The Battleground: A Look at 6 States Which May Determine the Election - chart AZ

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ELECTION UPDATE: CALL INVITE WITH CHARLIE COOK OF THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT:

Hedgeye Potomac is hosting a call with Charlie Cook - one of the nation’s leading authorities on American politics and U.S. elections, and founder of the Cook Political Report. Cook will share his outlook on the state of play for control of House and Senate as well as race for the presidency with one week to go as we reach the conclusion of the 2016 election. 

The call will take place today at 4:00 PM EDT with prepared remarks from Cook followed by Q&A.

Email sales@hedgeye.com for more information.