The Industrial recession is very much alive.
That's been our call for some time now and is backed up by today's Durable Goods data. But let's back up a bit.
Here's a brief list of industrial economy indicators that are currently in their worst non-recessionary growth streak ever (yes, ever):
- Industrial Production
- Capital Expenditure
- Factory Orders
Add in recent commentary from executives in the Industrials sector (here and here) saying things like "the industrial economy has not bottomed" and you've got all the evidence of need that we remain in an industrial recession.
But Don't take our word for it...
Check out the latest Durable Goods data released this morning:
- Headline Durable Goods fell -0.1% in September.
- Durables Ex-Defense & Aircraft (which represents the closest proxy for actual household spending) rose +0.2% MoM but held negative at -0.2% YoY. This marks the 6th month of negative growth in the last 7 months and the 15th month of negative growth in the last 17 respectively.
- Core Capital Goods, meanwhile, continued its epic decline, dropping -1.2% MoM and falling to -4.1% YoY. This was the 11th consecutive month of negative growth and the 20th month of negative growth in the last 21 respectively.
