HOLDING THE HOUSE
Although Democrats are hopeful that they'll be able to pick up the necessary seats to win back the House, we expect Republicans to hold on unless Hillary Clinton’s margin grows significantly over the next two weeks. Democrats need to pick up 30 seats - a tough task even with a flailing Donald Trump at the top of the Republican ticket.
As it stands Real Clear Politics (RCP) has Democrats with 190 seats categorized as Solid/Lean/Likely compared to the 224 for the Republicans and leaving 21 seats in the Toss up category. When the dust settles, we expect the Democrats to pick up 13-20 seats - not enough to deny Paul Ryan the Speaker’s gavel.
SENATE SLIPPING AWAY
Control for the Senate is coming down to NV, IN, PA, NC, MO and NH. The latest RCP figures put the Democrats at 47 compared to the Republicans with 46. Democrats need to win three of these six with a likely Clinton victory (Tim Kaine would be the tiebreaker with a 50-50 Senate) to take back control of the chamber. FL looked like a lock for Republicans when Marco Rubio reentered the race, but the state has now tightened and is again in play.
Republicans hold small leads in PA, NC, and MO, but the races have remained close and are within the margin of error. It’s worth emphasizing that five of these seven races coincide with battleground states in the presidential election; if Clinton has a strong showing in these battleground states and widens her margin over Trump, then Republicans will face stronger than expected headwinds on November 8.
In races once thought to be safe for Republicans now show Senator Richard Burr with a three point lead in NC and Senator Roy Blunt with just a one point lead in MO. Incumbent Senator Pat Toomey has been in a back and forth race with Katie McGinty in PA, and currently holds a lead of two points.
In the other three races Democrats hold the advantage. In NH, Senator Kelly Ayotte held the lead for most of the race, but Trump’s drag and related Ayotte missteps have swung the state into Governor Maggie Hassan’s favor. The battle for Majority Leader Harry Reid’s seat in NV has been neck-in-neck for months, but Catherine Cortez Masto has built up a small lead over Rep Joe Heck in the past week. Lastly, former Senator Evan Bayh still maintains a four point lead in IN, but this race is far from certain as his numbers have been dropping steadily for months.
EDITOR'S NOTE
This is a complimentary Capital Brief research note written by Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor and sent to institutional clients this morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.
Want more?
In a recent HedgeyeTV election 2016 special, Taylor lays out what would be "A Category 5 Catastrophe Scenario For Republicans":
- Swing voters for Dems
- Never Trump crowd doesn’t vote
- Trump voters stay home
