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Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.
"...Seriously. That was the worst ISM Services report since 2010 and the largest sequential decline in New Orders (leading indicator) in 104 months and this character at the San Francisco Fed, John Williams, came out intraday saying “the economy is strong” and needs rate hikes.
What, precisely, does “the economy is strong” mean? At Hedgeye we deal in real-time and space terms using this thing called the 2nd derivative as a leading indicator for future “levels.” In other words:
A) The economy is either accelerating or
B) The economy is decelerating
It’s not that complicated."
This is an excerpt from a recent “Black Book” presentation for institutional investors on Las Vegas Sands (LVS). In this clip, Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan presents three reasons why he added LVS to his Best Ideas Long list.
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In this clip from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye Energy Policy Analyst Joe McMonigle addresses the latest global oil developments and why there will be no OPEC oil freeze without Iran.
Takeaway: You may want to stop reading now if you're a “data dependent” hawk.
Editor's Note: The excerpt below is from a larger institutional note written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
...Drops -4 pts sequentially with Business Activity and New Orders dropping a remarkable -7.5 pts and -8.9 pts, respectively. Employment down -0.7 and barely holding positive at 50.7 as well.
From potential overheating to flirting with contraction in a single month with New Orders posting its largest sequential decline in 104 months. To review, if you broadly divide the economy into Services & Goods and do the data dependence math for August:
If you’re more into data point breadth, here’s a list that “data dependent” hawks should obfuscate or ignore:
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