As the Fed flounders from rate hike rhetoric to cautious soothsaying, Treasuries have rallied. Take a look at the flattening of the yield curve since the Fed decided to "raise interest rates" in December 2015. The yellow line is the yield curve on 12/15/15 and today's is the green line.
Rate hike ... What rate hike?
Click image to enlarge.
To be clear, long the Long Bond (TLT) has been our most vocal Macro call.
Heading into this year, it was a massively contrarian and in direct opposition to Wall Street consensus, which remained convinced the 10yr Treasury yield would hit 2.5% to 3% on Fed rate hikes.
Guess what? Our Long Bond call...
IT'S WORKING
The flattening of the yield curve has paid off massively for investors in TLT. Below are the year-to-date returns on Long Bonds versus the S&P 500.
