Hedgeye senior macro analyst Darius Dale wrote a compelling note this past Friday highlighting corporate profits which just posted their worst growth (Y/Y) since 4Q08.
While U.S. 4Q GDP was revised up to +1.4%, the corporate profit component showed a -10.5% Y/Y contraction. That marks the second consecutive quarter in which corporate profit growth was down Y/Y. Check out the chart below illustrating why that's such bad news.
Bottom line? In the 30 years since 1985, two consecutive quarters of shrinking corporate profits have preceded a material stock market downturn over the next twelve months in all five occurrences.