TODAY at 1:00 PM EST the Hedgeye Macro Team will host a conference call with former Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham and Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle from Potomac Research Group to discuss the implications of the U.S. and EU lifting sanctions on the Iranian energy industry. A corresponding slide deck will be available approximately 1 hour in advance of the call.
As part of Hedgeye’s recent acquisition of Potomac Research Group , we’re excited to introduce both Abraham and McMonigle to Hedgeye subscribers.
Watch THE replay below.
OVERVIEW:
This past weekend the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) certified that Iran met its legal obligations as part of July’s agreement. The US and European Union (EU) lifted all nuclear related sanctions on Iran within hours.
In today’s call, we will outline some of the obvious and possibly unforeseen winners and losers after Implementation Day. The goal of the call will be to leverage the Potomac team’s policy experience, expertise, and network to contextualize key upcoming geopolitical catalysts amid a sea of mainstream noise post-deal.
TOPICS OF DISCUSSION:
- Near Term Surprise?: Iran has the capability to increase production near-term by a larger quantity and at a faster pace than most analysts and policymakers have forecasted.
- Direction and Policy Tone of Releasing Deliverable Crude: We’ll give an update on the nearly 50MM barrels of crude stored on tankers offshore that is available for immediate delivery and on the move. Iran will move quickly to get into OPEC’s “market share” game (a game that Saudi Arabia will play for the foreseeable future).
- Updated Iranian Oil Contract: We’ll discuss the likely outcome of a re-worked Iranian Oil Contract. Iran’s Oil Ministry is planning a conference in London for oil companies and investors on February 22-24 to unveil its new Iran Petroleum Contract. In November, Iran held an introductory briefing for international oil companies on the new oil contract, and the general approach was received quite favorably.
- Short-Term vs. Long-Term: While initial production capabilities may be significantly understated in the short-run, billions in western investment is needed to bring Iran back to pre-sanctions production levels.
- Which companies will participate? European oil companies are now free to do business in Iran. However, while the US lifted nuclear sanctions on Saturday, other US sanctions related to terrorism and human rights remain in effect and prevent US companies from immediately doing business in Iran.
- Geopolitical Rivalries: A price war with rival, Saudi Arabia will commence. Russia is geopolitically-aligned with Iran, but they are business competitors. Russia was successful in taking many of Iran’s southern European clients. Iran will look to compete for this business at the same time that Europe is looking to diversify its energy needs away from Russia.
PARTICIPANT DIAL-IN INSTRUCTIONS:
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Confirmation Number: 13628992
Materials: CLICK HERE
BIOS:
Spencer Abraham
Secretary Spencer Abraham serves as Senior Energy Analyst and is Chairman and CEO of The Abraham Group, an international strategic consulting firm focused on the energy sector and based in Washington, DC.
Secretary Abraham is a member of the Board of Directors of Occidental Petroleum, NRG Energy and PBF Energy. Secretary Abraham served as the tenth Secretary of Energy in United States history from 2001-2005 under President Bush. Prior to being named a Cabinet Member, Spencer served as an effective and highly productive U.S. Senator from Michigan for six years.
Secretary Abraham is a member of the Board of Directors of Occidental Petroleum, NRG Energy and PBF Energy. In addition, he is a frequent commentator on FOX News, CNN and Bloomberg TV as well as a periodic contributor of op-ed articles to the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, The Weekly Standard and other publications.
Secretary Abraham holds a law degree from Harvard University, where he co-founded the Federalist Society, and is a native of East Lansing, Michigan.
Joseph McMonigle
Joseph McMonigle serves as a Senior Energy Analyst and is president and co-founder of The Abraham Group LLC.
Mr. McMonigle is the former Vice Chairman of the Paris-based International Energy Agency. He also served concurrently as U.S. Representative to the IEA (2003-2005).
In addition, Mr. McMonigle served as Chief of Staff at the U.S. Department of Energy and also as the American co-chair of the U.S.-China Energy Cooperation Working Group. He is also an attorney and member of the Energy Bar Association as well as the Pennsylvania and District of Columbia bars.
