By the Numbers: Fertility Around the World

NewsWire: 11/4/24

#1. US: Black and White TFRs Converge

The CDC has released preliminary fertility data for the 12 months ending in Q2 2024. (CDC)

• TFR Q2 2024: 1.621, +0.004 since CY 2023
  • Hispanic: 1.958, +0.008
  • Black: 1.543, -0.028
  • White: 1.533, +0.006
• Our Take: The Q2 2024 total fertility rate was practically unchanged from CY 2023. But the data reveal two new trends.
• After approaching each other since COVID-19, the TFRs for blacks and whites have now essentially converged. This is primarily due to a significant fertility decline among blacks: Between Q1 2022 and Q2 2024, the TFR for black women declined -4.2%, while the TFR for white women declined -3.3%.
• The data also show a high TFR for Hispanics, but in reality, the rate is likely lower. The CDC records maternal race from birth certificates, while total population estimates come from the Census. The Census data use the American Community Survey (ACS) to estimate trends in immigration. But in recent years, the ACS has reported lower immigration growth than other national surveys, likely undercounting the Hispanic population and inflating the TFR.

#2. UK: Fertility Hits New Low

The ONS has released 2023 birth data for England and Wales. (Office of National Statistics) 

• Live Births: 591K, -2.4% YoY
  
• TFR: 1.44, -0.05 since 2022
• Our Take: In 2023, England’s TFR hit 1.44. That’s the lowest reading ever recorded since the UK began tracking such data in 1938. Birth rates declined for every age group under 40, while the rates for the oldest mothers slightly increased. Note the birthrate once again fell for women ages 30-34 (-1.7). Like in the US, this is further evidence that Millennials aren’t just “putting off” having children. 

#3. Australia: Migrants Bring Down Fertility

Australia has released its 2023 birth statistics. (Australian Bureau of Statistics)

• Registered Births: 287K, -4.6% YoY
• TFR: 1.50, -0.13 since 2022
  • TFR by Mother’s Birthplace
    • Overseas-Born: 1.34
    • Australian-Born: 1.69
• Our Take: In 2023, Australia’s TFR hit 1.50, the lowest reading ever recorded. Surprisingly, the TFR for foreign mothers continues to be quite a bit lower than for native-born Australians. This is due to the large share of immigrants who are highly educated and come from Asian countries with low TFRs. While positive net migration may be elevating total population growth, it’s doing nothing to increase the birth rate.

#4. Malaysia: Fertility Rebounds?

Malaysia has released its 2023 fertility statistics. (Department of Statistics Malaysia)

• Births: 456K, +7.7% YoY
• TFR: 1.7, +0.1 since 2022
  • TFR by Ethnicity
    • Malay: 2.2, +0.1
    • Chinese: 0.9, +0.1
    • Indians: 1.2, +0.1
    • Other Bumiputera: 1.8, +0.1
• Our Take: Malaysia’s fertility rate has increased for the first time since 2014. This rise occurred across all major ethnic groups. But the increase may only be a temporary blip in the overall declining trend. Births in the first half of 2024 have already declined by -10% YoY. If this rate of decline continues, Malaysia’s TFR could hit a record low of 1.5 in 2024.

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