The annual Medicare Trustees report includes updates to annual Medicare Advantage enrollment forecasts. As we expect, annual enrollment growth will slow from the high single digits in 2024 to less than three percent in 2030. The largest deceleration will begin in 2027. The Actuary also forecasts that the penetration of MA enrollment into the total eligible population will be 57.1% in 2033.
Also as expected, a big contributor to enrollment growth will be Special Needs Plans, a focus of CNC and ELV. Growth in 2024 is expected to the 16.7% YoY in 2024 - a result of certain policy changes. HMO products are expected to continue with slow growth YoY of ~0.50 bps YoY while PPO plans remain popular with expected growth of 11% YoY,
Keep next year on your mind because by then plans will have to have their pivot to other products (we see the early stages of that re: ACA plans) or grow inorganically. The good news is that there are thousands of MA plans from which to choose
Let me know if you have any questions.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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