After months of political delays, handwringing, debates, and even threats, the U.S. Congress passed a $95 billion military aid bill for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. President Joe Biden immediately signed the legislation into law, after House Speaker Mike Johnson had finally backed the legislation and found a path for it to pass with bipartisan support. The Republican leader now faces potential backlash from within his own party, but it remains unclear how serious those challenges may really be. The largest portion of military aid ($61 billion) is designated to support Ukraine and refill American military wartime stockpiles. But the legislation also included $26 billion for Israel as well as 8.1 billion to aid Taiwan and “counter communist China and ensure a strong deterrence in the region.” In full, the aid package highlights regions of the world that have become central to US national security policy.
Each part of the bill has its own political and military implications for the future, but Biden argued that it would “make the world safer. And it continues America’s leadership in the world, and everyone knows it.” The Ukrainian military has complained in recent months that they are outgunned and running low on ammunition. Without additional support, Kyiv’s soldiers were unable to stock, maintain, or support the weapons that had been provided thus far. That means it is difficult for them to even consider pursuing a counteroffensive any time this year. President Zelensky had even said that without additional military aid Ukraine would lose the war. With the arrival of this additional military assistance, the Ukrainians will likely be able to stabilize the front and thwart a possible upcoming Russian offensive. Beyond the actual aid, it cannot be overstated how much this means for Ukrainian morale. For months Ukrainians have been deeply concerned that Western support was waning as they faced rising challenges on the battlefield. In the past few weeks, Russia has intensified its bombardment of Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Moscow also appears poised to launch a new ground offensive during the spring and summer months.
The legislation provided $23.2 billion to “replenish American wartime stockpiles,” as well as billions of dollars to allow Ukraine to purchase American weapons that Kyiv has long said it needed. Secretary of Defense Austin pointed out, however, that “$50 billion will flow directly into our defense industrial base” that will create jobs in thirty states and serve to reinforce American long-term security. Ukraine’s military leaders and planners are particularly excited that the bill directs the Biden administration to provide Kyiv the American long-range missiles known as ATACMS – or Army Tactical Missile Systems – that have a range of about 190 miles. That means Ukrainian troops can strike targets deeper into occupied territory, including Crimea, which is a key hub for Russian air, naval, and ground forces.
The bill stipulates that as many as 1,000 of these missiles could be provided to the Ukrainians. It was revealed that the White House had already sent these missiles to Ukraine in mid-April, and they have already been used with devastating effects. This longer-range ATACMS is an essential upgrade over the original version the U.S. delivered in October, which had only half the range. The administration immediately announced a $1 billion security assistance package for Kyiv shortly after the President signed the legislation, and a few days later the Pentagon announced an additional $6 billion in weapon purchases for Kyiv – the largest assistance package that the United States has provided since the war began. These initial aid packages include air defense interceptors, much-needed artillery rounds, armored vehicles, spare parts, and anti-tank weapons. Altogether, expanded American military assistance could prove the difference between defeat and a slim but more realistic chance at victory. Shortages of artillery and air defense have severely hampered Ukraine’s ability to rebuff Russia’s attacks. Moscow’s forces have recently been able to fire up to ten artillery rounds for every one fired by the Ukrainians.
Ukraine also has had to limit its use of air defense weapons in recent months, which has allowed Russia to make more effective and damaging strikes – particularly with its recent use of glide bombs. It will take some time for this aid to translate to meaningful military capabilities on the battlefield, however. While Ukraine has systemically improved its military logistics operations in recent months, this new system has not yet had to accommodate such a sudden and large influx of materiel. Furthermore, Russia has targeted Ukrainian infrastructure (railways and road systems) in recent months to complicate resupply efforts, and there are few systems that would be able to immediately distribute such large quantities of materiel throughout its frontlines quickly. That may mean that Russian forces are able to make some marginal gains in the weeks ahead.
There is also clearly going to be some political backlash within the Republican Party for the Speaker’s decision to support military aid for Ukraine. Some far-right Republicans were clearly opposed to providing further aid. In fact, more Republicans in the House voted against the legislation (112) than voted in favor (101). This occurred even though Donald Trump threw his support behind Speaker Johnson and has remained relatively quiet on the issue of additional military aid to Ukraine in recent weeks. To assuage some doubting Republicans, a portion of the aid ($10 billion) is a loan – an idea promoted by Trump – that the president can forgive beginning in 2026. The U.S. will also aim to offset some of the funding with seized Russian assets, which was an added provision aimed at garnering further bipartisan support. Republicans Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Marjorie Greene of Georgia, however, have said they intend to remove Johnson from his post as House Speaker for supporting the Ukraine legislation. It remains uncertain whether they have the necessary political support to move forward with that threat. Their positions could also reflect a recent allegation made in The Washington Post – that the Kremlin has fabricated thousands of news articles, social media posts, and comments to discourage support for Ukraine and promote American isolationism.
The bill includes $14 billion for Israel to help “defend itself against Iran and its proxies.” Of that, $4 billion was to replenish Israel’s Iron Dome and David’s Sling air defense systems, $9 billion for humanitarian assistance in the region, and $2.4 billion to “reimburse U.S. military operations in response to recent attacks.” The latter is particularly important due to the large-scale naval operations the US has been conducting in the Red Sea in response to attacks by the Houthis in Yemen against commercial shipping. It also prohibits assistance to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), which supports refugees in the Gaza Strip but also faces Israeli allegations that some of its Palestinian aid workers supported Hamas’s October 7 attack.
Military aid for Israel was opposed by many Democrats but received major support from Republicans. It is also likely that passage of the supplemental aid bill was accelerated by Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel. Speaker Johnson himself said after the attack that it showed the “necessity of standing with Israel.” In this instance, President Biden is now clearly concerned with his left flank. Progressives have been deeply critical of his support for Israel, as the number of Palestinian dead climbs past 33,000. While Biden said after the legislation passed that his support of Israel remains “ironclad,” he noted that “Israel must make sure this aid reaches all of the Palestinians in Gaza, without delay.” There is about $1 billion within the humanitarian aid appropriation that Biden said would be sent to Gaza quickly. “This bill includes $1 billion for additional humanitarian aid in Gaza," the president said. "We're going to immediately secure that aid and surge it ... including food, medical supplies [and] clean water.” Many had believed that this war in the Gaza Strip and the Middle East would be brief as they have been in the past, but there is no reason to think that after six months of combat. Israel could be confronted with conflicts in the region for years to come. The U.S. must prepare itself for this very real possibility.
This section of the bill promises more than $8 billion to “counter communist China and ensure strong deterrence in the region.” This includes $2 billion for foreign military financing for Taiwan, $2 billion to restock U.S. arsenals of weapons already sent to Taiwan and other Indo-Pacific countries, and more than $3 billion “to develop American submarine infrastructure.” The latter is crucial to the AUKUS agreement between the US, Australia, and the United Kingdom. This pact has recently become even more important after Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited Washington and discussed joining the agreement. In the meantime, it is worth noting that while nearly half of the Indo-Pacific appropriation is aimed at submarines that will enhance deterrence in the region, it will also directly support the submarine industrial, infrastructure, and support the American economy. This is part of a longer-term effort by the Biden administration to expand the interlocking alliances that the United States has across the Pacific region.
Clearly, China is assessing American resolve to defend Taiwan and Washington’s efforts to bolster the US deterrent posture across the Pacific. American allies are also taking note. Prime Minister Kishida underscored how American global commitments are interconnected. While in Washington he asked, "without U.S. support, how long before the hopes of Ukraine would collapse under the onslaught from Moscow? Without the presence of the United States, how long before the Indo-Pacific would face even harsher realities?" Detractors of this appropriation will likely criticize its size and focus. Most policymakers and lawmakers in Washington view China as the larger, future threat, and consequently many believe the US should dedicate greater resources to confront it.
One final aspect of the effort to undermine growing Chinese influence with this bill is the demand that the social media application TikTok must be sold by its Chinese owners. Cybersecurity analysts and government officials have warned for a long time that Beijing could use TikTok to mine the data of unsuspecting Americans. The legislation says that the Chinese firm ByteDance has a year to sell the company or else face a total ban. An eventual ban on this social media platform appears increasingly likely, as China has made it nearly impossible for ByteDance to sell TikTok’s valuable algorithm. Without the algorithm, any sale of TikTok would be rendered effectively worthless. The size and scope of this legislation is clearly staggering, and it underscores the many global challenges the United States faces. After signing it, President Biden praised Congressional leaders and lawmakers for what he called an effort “to answer history’s call at this critical inflection point.” Only time will tell if that is true. At this moment, however, one is reminded of a remark ascribed to Winston Churchill. “The Americans will always do the right thing after they have tried everything else."
