“All the achievers in these pages have found meaning in their work that animates them.”
-Sally Jenkins
That’s an important summary line in the epilogue of a great #behavioral book I’ve been citing for the last 6 months: The Right Call – What Sports Teach Us About Work And Life.
I don’t have to be a world class athlete to learn from that book inasmuch as I don’t have to be one of the world’s top historians to learn from The Silk Roads…
The elements of greatness that Sally Jenkins observed are things like “conditioning, practice, discipline, candor, culture, failure, and intention – these are the root of acumen in any field, and they can give all of us, no matter our profession, the poised ability to think and choose more clearly.” (pg 197)
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
Going from long-time META Bull to Bearish (on Monday), THEN saying go BIG and BUY GOOGL after he’s right on META?
In almost 25 years in this profession, I haven’t seen an analyst have a week like The Freebird just did.
Also commonly called “The Bird” by his teammates, Andrew Freedman has a unique passion to play The Game that’s hard to find on Wall Street. He’s had it since Day 1 @Hedgeye.
Let’s just say he’s found the “meaning” in his work that “animates” him!
Long-time subscribers to our Independent Research & Risk Management #process might recall that when he was Baby Bird (a Healthcare Analyst), Freedman took on CNBC pumper, Bill Ackman, on a company called Valeant.
Bill was long. The Bird was short. The rest is history.
Freebird is older now. He’s not just a great analyst. He’s a loving husband and proud father of 2 children. He’s also one of the best coaches we have on “the floor” of HedgeyeHQ. I couldn’t be more proud of his development and evolution.
Enough about that or I’m going to have to give him another raise…
In addition to Long GOOGL, which our new Momentum Stock Tracker product still ranks #1 on @Hedgeye TRADE and TREND Signal Strength, what else were we buying on red this week?
A) I covered ½ my Shorts in Real-Time Alerts on red yesterday
B) I was grossing up my Core INFLATION Asset Allocations to Gold & Silver (GLD, AAAU, SLV)
C) I was “spreading my wings” into more INFLATION Asset Allocations: GDX, CRIT, XLB, NIKL, NLR
I didn’t get that one-liner about spreading my wings from The Bird. I got it from one of the OG’s of Global Macro Investing, Stan Druckenmiller. When you get something big right (like Commodities, Inflation, etc.) spreadem wide!
‘But, but… why would you buy and cover on red if your market signals are breaking down?’
A: the “market” that Old Wall question is asking me about (i.e. the Dow, in points) isn’t my Global Macro market.
Here are the Global Macro Market Signals I’m looking at this morning:
- US Dollar is ramping to new 35year highs versus a devalued Japanese Yen
- UST Yields, across The Curve, continue to signal Bullish (higher) TRADE and TREND
- Commodities (CRB Index) were UP near Global #Quad2 Cycle Highs yesterday
- Dr. Copper is inflating another +1.3% this morning to new Global #Quad2 Cycle Highs
- Nickel (NIKL) and Silver (SLV) are both inflating more than +1% too
- Gold is inflating another +0.8% and signaling new ATHs (all-time highs)
- Basic Material Stocks (XLB) were +0.7% yesterday in a sea of SPY Monkey red
- Energy Stocks (XLE) inflated another +0.5% yesterday and remain the #1 performing Sector Style
- Big liquid Equity Markets like India and Germany continue to signal Bullish TRADE and TREND
- China’s Shanghai Comp was up +1.2% overnight, moving back to Bullish TRADE and TREND too
‘But, but… don’t you think the US acts more like #Quad3 Stagflation instead of #Quad2?’
A: yes (and that’s a much better question btw!)
While our MONTHLY Quads for the next 9 months have 5 monthly #Quad3s and 4 monthly #Quad2s, I’m not going to start navel gazing at that and ignore the glaring difference between that locally and GLOBAL #Quad2.
Most of our Institutional Clients who don’t just do US Stocks get this obviously…
Because it’s obvious to anyone who realizes that A) we had a Global Industrial/Manufacturing & Commodity Recession in 2022-2023 and B) it mostly BOTTOMED in Q4 of 2023.
That’s why what we’re Long in US Equities (Energy and Materials) doesn’t need the Dow to go up in points. That’s also why my Long Only Portfolio (see Portfolio Solutions product) was UP all day yesterday.
That’s right (and there are 30 unique Hedgeye Asset Allocations in that portfolio), even though it was the HIGHEST day for intraday US Equity Volatility in the last 12 months (see Chart of The Day from Tier1 Alpha)…
That didn’t matter to my portfolio. Not everyone does Macro my way AND has The Bird on his team.
Immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal with @Hedgeye TREND signal in brackets
UST 10yr Yield 4.53-4.73% (bullish)
UST 2yr Yield 4.89-5.05% (bullish)
Investment Grade (LQD) 104.27-105.72 (bearish)
SPX 4 (bullish)
NASDAQ 15,206-15,990 (bearish)
RUT 1 (bearish)
Tech (XLK) 190-203 (bearish)
Energy (XLE) 93.30-98.07 (bullish)
Basic Materials (XLB) 87.45-89.99 (bullish)
Shanghai Comp 3001-3108 (bullish)
BSE Sensex (India) 72,278-74,906 (bullish)
DAX 17,635-18,213 (bullish)
VIX 14.65-20.19 (bullish)
USD 105.25-106.26 (bullish)
USD/YEN 153.77-156.90 (bullish)
Oil (WTI) 80.90-85.99 (bullish)
Gold 2 (bullish)
Copper 4.28-4.61 (bullish)
Silver (SLV) 26.75-29.35 (bullish)
MSFT 396-425 (bullish)
AAPL 162-173 (bearish)
AMZN 172-186 (bullish)
META 425-493 (bearish)
GOOGL 153-180 (bullish)
TSLA 135-174 (bearish)
Best of luck out there today,
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
