“It is better to err on the side of daring than the side of caution.”
-Alvin Toffler
Who on Wall Street actually has it in them to “make calls” these days?
I don’t mean writing some garrulous note about “Jay” or some ridiculous George Jetson narrative on how Elon is going to fly a “Robo Taxi” to Mars.
I mean making a real SELL call like my Partner, Andrew Freedman, did on Monday on META…
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
Today’s quote was used by The Bullfrog (Admiral McRaven) to describe the day he and his Navy SEALS took out Osama Bin Laden:
“The room was abuzz with activity, but very little noise…
No one even noticed I had entered the operations center. That was good. They needed to be focused. Tonight would be the biggest mission of their lives. If we got it wrong, we would bear the burden of failure for the rest of our days. If we got it right, it would be a legacy to be proud of.” -The Wisdom Of The Bullfrog, pg 79
That’s precisely the culture we’ve built at Hedgeye. On any Game Day, if you come into Hedgeye HQ, you will hear very little noise. But, if you know what you’re looking for, you will see the room abuzz with activity and focus.
Remember the “MAG7”?
A) Then there were what we coined the Terrible Twos (TSLA and AAPL)
B) Now there’s META blowing up the MAG into maybe 1 stock of the 7 I’d buy on sale today (GOOGL)
Why didn’t I signal “BUY GOOGL” in Real-Time (Coaching) Alerts WHEN it was on sale for the last week?
A) Freebird (Andrew Freedman) was telling all of our Institutional Clients to SELL META ahead of their EPS print
B) And… GOOGL has been correlating with META on big up/down days
So, if you need/want another “call” on a stock this morning, it would be:
A) BUY GOOGL… and stay with
B) AAPL, TSLA, and META on the Short Side
Imagine how clueless I’d be on Single Stock & SPY Monkey Concentration Risk if I didn’t have The Bears on AAPL (Felix Wang), TSLA (Jay Van Sciver), and META (Freebird) on my team?
When Freebird made his Independent Research presentation (going from Bullish to Bearish on META) to our Institutional Clients on Monday, I knew how “big” his “call” was by looking at how many firms dialed in…
It was a new 15-year attendance record for a Single Stock presentation @Hedgeye…
If he “got it wrong” he would “bear the burden of failure” for all of those Institutional Investors to see. If he got it right, he expected to be right. And we’re proud of him.
What’s next for the MAG Blowups?
A) We’ve made our MAG 3 Blowup “calls” (AAPL, TSLA, and META)… so I got nothin’ for you beyond those
B) GOOGL is the only name of the widely held “MAG 7” that is still signaling Bullish TRADE and TREND
But I already told you that…
What else?
A) If people love “electrifying” everything from George Jetson to whatever, why aren’t they Long Copper?
B) The Doctor (Copper) is inflating another +1.6% this morning to new Global #Quad2 Cycle Highs…
In addition to the META Blowups, Japanese Stocks are starting to implode too. Not unlike META, we made “The Turn” from Bullish on Japanese Equities to Bearish (EWJ). The Nikkei was down another -2.2% overnight to -6.9% in the last month.
Oh, and if you think I’m pretty sweet this morning with all these “calls” my teammates are making, don’t forget I’m a Toronto Maple Leafs fan whose bet against the Bruins last night blew up too.
There are always Bullish and Bearish TRENDs to “make calls” on somewhere.
Immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal with @Hedgeye TREND signal in brackets
UST 10yr Yield 4.50-4.72% (bullish)
UST 2yr Yield 4.88-5.04% (bullish)
SPX 4 (neutral)
NASDAQ 15,200-15,954 (bearish)
RUT 1 (bearish)
Tech (XLK) 189-201 (bearish)
Energy (XLE) 93.17-98.06 (bullish)
Nikkei 36,529-38,825 (bearish)
BSE Sensex (India) 72,200-75,091 (bullish)
VIX 15.13-20.11 (bullish)
USD 105.27-106.31 (bullish)
Oil (WTI) 80.75-86.38 (bullish)
Gold 2 (bullish)
Copper 4.26-4.58 (bullish)
Silver (SLV) 26.91-29.27 (bullish)
AAPL 161-172 (bearish)
META 399-495 (bearish)
GOOGL 150-161 (bullish)
NFLX 524-599 (bearish)
TSLA 134-169 (bearish)
NVDA 751-907 (neutral)
Bitcoin 61,258-66,991 (bullish)
Best of luck out there today,
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
