Industry: Our Aggregate Visits Dataset is now back to the March trending rate of +MSD YY after being disrupted by the Easter shift for the past ~3-weeks. Overall, the 5wk avg trend remains positive, with visit compares easing into May and then getting more difficult into summer. Comp sales continue to accelerate alongside the improved YY tax refund dynamic, which reaccelerated from -2% to +15% on a weekly refund basis. The cumulative season is now up +2% YY after a weak start, so net positive for near term spending.
- Notable Industry Callouts: Like the Aggregate Retail set, subsector visits growth rates returned to their respective March trend.
Recent Black Books Links:
- Retail 2Q 2024 Themes
- BYON | Beyond | Best Idea Long | The Path to a $100+ Stock
- FND | Floor & Decor | Best Idea Short | Unit Economics Deep Dive
- 1Q EPS Setup Into Earnings
Company Callouts:
- Is Denim Back? (BOOT, LEVI, LULU, Etc.) From what we’ve heard over the recent weeks, denim is back, and leggings/yoga pants are dead. Visits at the likes of Boot Barn (BOOT) and Levi’s (LEVI) are improving YY, while visits at Lululemon Athletica (LULU) have fallen off a cliff. Google Search Interest looks similar, with searches for “Denim” making all-time highs and up +50% YY, while searches for “Leggings” (while very seasonal) have slowly trended lower over the past few years and are down MSD to DD YY every week. The stock charts have followed suit, with LEVI up +35% YTD and LULU down -27% YTD. What is driving this trend? In part a vintage-esque fashion wave and a still hot Western trend—now partially reignited by more country starts coming into the spotlight and Beyonce dropping her own country album. While we do not have a call on LEVI, we have had both LULU and BOOT on our Short Bias List—and have been right on LULU. We are reevaluating these positions now given the changes in the data and stock prices.
Earnings Preview
- Floor & Decor (FND—Best Idea Short). Last Q Sales: 0%; This Q Consensus -0.6% | Trailing 13Wk Last Q Visits +0.3%; Trailing 13Wk This Q Visits -7.5%
- Arhaus (ARHS). Last Q Sales: -3.5%; This Q Consensus -13.2% | Trailing 13Wk Last Q Visits -9.1%; Trailing 13Wk This Q Visits -11.8%
- Upbound Group (UPBD). Last Q Sales: +2.8%; This Q Consensus +3.4% | Trailing 13Wk Last Q Visits +0.6%; Trailing 13Wk This Q Visits -1.8%
Chart List:
- Industry
- Companies
Source: Placer.ai
