We're hosting a Deep Dive Black Book on the Nike Ecosystem on Wednesday, May 1 at 12:30PM ET. Sentiment on the Nike growth trajectory is as bad as we have seen since the 2016/17 pilot with Amazon while Adidas was winning with Stan Smith / Superstars. To bet against Nike from here is to bet against a 30+ year trend of the company knowing how to deploy capital and drive market share gains. Ultimately, we're going to bridge the gap from where Nike is today from an earnings power perspective ($3.50ps), and the $6.50 - $7.00 number we think you need to believe (that no one does) to make Nike a BIG idea over a TAIL duration. Specific topics will include...
- Dive into many aspects of where Nike is in its growth trajectory, and what we think will lead to the next 'supercycle' of growth, and where estimates are likely to go over the near-term and over a TAIL duration.
- We'll look deep into past cycles (we think we're at the start of the 5th growth cycle in 30-years) and the implications for channel partners and competitors – including FL, JD/HIBB, ADS, DECK, ONON, as well as smaller brands like SKX, Asics, New Balance, Brooks and Saucony.
- Our 'Balance of Power is Shifting' theme, where we'll go through the flow of margin dollars back and forth through different elements of the supply chain in different athletic cycles, and ultimately, why it makes sense to go long the retailers today.
- Importantly, we'll hit on the duopolistic nature of the athletic footwear industry, and whether the paradigm shifts we've seen with the business have simply structurally altered the profitability dynamics of selling shoes (punchline, yes it has).
- A major focus will be on how much capital Nike is investing, where it's being deployed – into price vs retail experience – and what disruption it's likely to cause up, down, and across the supply chain. We can debate ‘til we're blue in the face whether Nike will win or lose from here. That's irrelevant today. What matters now is whether or not Nike deploys the capital to TRY. And we're 100% certain that it will go down that path.
- We'll dive into market share by category, particularly running, where the low hanging fruit is, who is most at risk, and to what (quantifiable) extent.
- We'll delve into fashion trends, quantifying the ebb and flow into things like Nike's Jordan Business, and Air Force 1 franchise, as well as the battleground with Adidas classics, which are currently on fire, like Samba and Gazelle. And let's not forget Yeezy (which is every last bit as profitable as Jordan is to Nike).
- We'll also dive into trends in athlete endorsements, including whether or not they matter anymore given the paradigm shift in how product is bought and sold.
- In addition, we'll go through Nike management changes, and what could potentially change in the C-Suite to change up the narrative.
Please join us on May 1st
Call Details:
Date/Time: Wednesday, May 1st at 12:30 ET
Add to Calendar CLICK HERE
Live Video Link CLICK HERE
