“It’s easy to mold the past into a shape that we find convenient and accessible.”
-Peter Frankopan
Have you studied the last 200-300 years of history or the last 2000-3000 years? We know what most of our clients in the West were taught in high school. It’s not the same history as many were taught in the East.
As Frankopan goes on to write in The Silk Roads: “the ancient world was much more sophisticated and interlinked than we sometimes like to think. Seeing Rome as the progenitor of Western Europe overlooks the fact that it consistently looked to and in many ways was shaped by the influences of the East.” (pg 26)
Whether you agree with that or not will make for an interesting debate. My #VASP (Volatility Adjusted Signaling Process) isn’t an intellectual, however. It sees the world through its own Fractal Lens that is perpetuated by The Flows.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
Never mind studying the last 200 years of history, the Macro Tourist duration on what’s happening in the Middle East has a 2-day duration. LOL
BREAKING: “Gold, Silver, and Oil down on a “quiet weekend” for geopolitical risk” -Old Wall “News”
“Quiet”? Yep. It’s really quiet this morning in Fairfield County, Connecticut. I live a blessed and privileged life (for now) where it looks like my kids will wake up to a sunrise of safety this morning.
But in the Middle East, “quiet” (which it’s not), is often the precursor for the next move…
To be clear, I’m not a geopolitical risk analyst – my #VASP Signals are. I’m also fortunate to have Dr. (and retired US Army Colonel) Jeff McCausland on our team. He formally served as the Dean of Academics at the US Army War College after commanding a battalion during the Gulf War in 1.
Do people who are selling their Gold, Silver, and Energy Stocks this morning have either my Signaling Process or an Independent & Apolitical Research team to help them risk manage what my #VASP is telling me to buy/sell next?
Personally, I don’t have the time to care about what the other players or teams in The Game have at their disposal when they are making buy/sell decisions. I only have the time to focus on executing on my process.
Btw, I already sold-SOME of my US Energy Exposure on green yesterday and:
A) That had nothing to do with a narrative on the Middle East
B) Selling-SOME of my XLE, XOP, and AMLP was mainly because I bought a bunch of it on red last week!
With those proceeds, I’ll re-allocate to buying-MORE Gold, Silver, and Shipping Exposure (via BDRY).
Why? Well, I generally don’t boil the ocean on that intellectually with a narrative either (because I’m not an intellectual), but if you want to know why, here’s WHEN buying-MORE of a Core Asset Allocation matters:
A) WHEN it’s signaling Bullish on my immediate-term TRADE duration … and
B) It continues to signal Bullish on my intermediate-term TREND and long-term TAIL durations… and
C) It’s for sale near the LRRs (Low-End of my Risk Range™ Signals)
To use Gold and Silver as examples:
A) Gold’s TRADE and TREND Levels of @Hedgeye Signal Support = $2251 and $2158/oz
B) Silver’s TRADE and TREND Levels of @Hedgeye Signal Support = $25.83 and $24.62/oz
C) Both Gold and Silver are approaching their LRRs this morning
WHEN I woke up at 430AM ET to my life of blessed safety, I wasn’t looking to read some Old Wall dude’s narrative or waste my precious life and Cycle Time watching CNBC. I’m looking for A, B, and C.
That’s it. That’s the #process. And today is the day to gross up these Global #Quad2 Asset Allocations to INFLATION.
Immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal with @Hedgeye TREND signal in brackets
UST 30yr Yield 4.57-4.83% (bullish)
UST 10yr Yield 4.45-4.74% (bullish)
UST 2yr Yield 4.85-5.08% (bullish)
SPX 4911-5120 (bearish)
NASDAQ 15,113-15,982 (bearish)
RUT 1 (bearish)
Tech (XLK) 189-201 (bearish)
Insurance (IAK) 108.56-115.01 (bullish)
Shanghai Comp 2 (neutral)
Nikkei 36,705-38,952 (bearish)
BSE Sensex (India) 72,114-75,099 (bullish)
DAX 17,662-18,191 (bullish)
VIX 14.94-20.37 (bullish)
USD 105.07-106.67 (bullish)
Oil (WTI) 80.75-87.25 (bullish)
Gold 2 (bullish)
Copper 4.23-4.54 (bullish)
Silver (SLV) 26.43-29.11 (bullish)
AAPL 160-171 (bearish)
GOOGL 152-160 (bullish)
TSLA 132-167 (bearish)
Best of luck out there today,
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
