Craft’s final 2023 figures (SAM)
Small and independent craft beer production decreased 1% YOY in volume in 2023, according to the Brewers Association, the industry’s trade group. In 2022, the industry saw a slightly smaller decline. Craft’s market share of the beer category increased by 20bps to 13.3% in 2023. The overall beer category had a 5.1% decrease in volumes. Retail sales of the beer category, excluding cider, FMBs, and hard seltzer, are estimated to be $28.6B.
The number of craft breweries increased by 0.9% in 2023, with 495 openings slightly outpacing 418 closures. The industry’s production-to-capacity ratio is just slightly higher than 50%. The craft industry’s higher prices and greater reliance (30%) on the on-premise channel are near-term challenges. Boston Beer is the second largest craft brewer (tenth largest brewer), while Tilray (covered by Howard Penney) is the fifth largest, including its recent acquisitions. They are both on our short lists.
Canadian food CPI (LBLCF) – Short Loblaw
Food purchased from stores CPI in Canada increased 1.9% YOY in March, decelerating from 2.4% in February. Food purchased from restaurants CPI of 5.1% YOY outpaced at-home, with the gap widening by 50bps sequentially. The recent deceleration in food prices in grocery stores should lower the temperature for the industry. Grocers need to avoid passing on further prices to avoid more attention from the Canadian government. Lowblaw is on our short list.
