Adjusting the Menu: Navigating the Uneven Recovery of the Restaurant Workforce in 2024
The NRA expectation of slower growth in 2024 suggests a cautious outlook, potentially driven by broader economic factors or shifts in consumer behavior; however, OpenTable sees "Green Shoots."
Moderate Job Growth in Early 2024: The restaurant industry saw a moderate increase in employment in February and March 2024, adding approximately 28,300 and 28,500 jobs, respectively. This marks a recovery from below-trend job growth from November 2023 to January 2024, where nearly 15,000 jobs were lost.
Overall Recovery Above Pre-Pandemic Levels: Despite recent volatility in employment trends, the restaurant workforce as of March 2024 remained 37,000 jobs above the February 2020 peak, indicating an overall recovery above pre-pandemic levels.
Segment-Specific Recovery Variations: The recovery in employment levels varies significantly across different restaurant industry segments. The full-service segment is still 248,000 jobs below its pre-pandemic level as of February 2024, indicating a slow recovery. Conversely, segments like snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars, quick-service, and fast casual are above their February 2020 employment levels.
State-Level Discrepancies in Workforce Recovery: There's a notable variance in the recovery of restaurant employment across states. While 24 states plus the District of Columbia have yet to reach their pre-pandemic employment levels, others like Nevada and Utah have seen significant increases, surpassing their February 2020 employment figures.
Expectation of Slower Job Growth in 2024: The NRA anticipates slower job growth throughout 2024, expecting to add 200,000 jobs—a third of the growth seen in 2023. This forecast aligns with a reduction in job openings, which have decreased to below 1 million for five consecutive months, reflecting a cooling in the labor market despite remaining above the 2019 monthly average.
US Diners Embrace Eating Out: Quarterly Survey Shows Promising Trends
According to recent data from OpenTable, the percentage of fully booked restaurants in the United States varied from -10% to +20% during the week of April 5, 2024, which included Easter Sunday. April month-to-date is -5%. Despite the mixed results, the quarterly survey indicates positive trends in the dining industry. The survey reveals that 66% of US diners eat out at least once a week, a slight increase from 64% in 1Q24. Furthermore, a significant portion of the population is dining out more frequently than six months ago, with 33% of US diners reporting increased restaurant visits. These findings suggest that the restaurant industry is experiencing a gradual recovery, with more people feeling comfortable dining out and making it a regular part of their routines. The uptick in dining frequency and the increasing percentage of people eating out compared to six months prior indicate a growing demand for restaurant services and a potential boost for the industry in the coming months.
