02/29/24 01:35 PM EST

Retail | Detailed Traffic Analysis 2/29

Brian McGough

Jeremy McLean

Arianna Petillo

Ryan Wilson

Takeaway: Visits accelerate with redbook slowing, tax returns improving, new locations added, earnings look ahead on JWN, EWCZ, FL, GPS, ARHS, SVV

Industry: Overall, year on year visits trends are improving, with 4 weeks in a row of accelerations on the 5Wk Avg trend. As we noted last week, Aggregate YY visits have been negative since the brief positive stint in June, and while trends do seem to be improving in recent weeks, we are not confident that this is sustainable given where we see the consumer wallet. We continue to track the Tax Refund data to get a read on where additional spending capacity is trending in the early months of 2024, and the numbers are looking weak compared to last year so far. On a cumulative refund basis (all of ’24 so far) the total amount refunded continues to accelerate weekly, from -77% to -51% to -23% this week. Looking at this week’s average refunded amount, it was up +2% YY, from -13% YY last week, so improving for the avg receiver but less money overall being paid so far. Overall, refunds are just beginning to free up excess spending vs last year for the average person receiving a refund.

Notable Industry Callouts: Accelerations in every subsector except Superstores and Discount & Dollar Stores

Companies: Numbers below = YoY Rate of Change from week to week

Notable Accelerations: Bloomingdale’s Outlet +17%, DXL +11%, Valvoline Instant Oil Change +11%, Kohl’s +10%, The Container Store +10%
Notable Decelerations: City Gear -12%, Shoe Station -11%

Newly Added Stores: Value Village Thrift Stores, Unique Thrift Stores, Warby Parker, Foot Locker, Saks OFF 5^TH, Bob's Discount Furniture, UGG Outlet, SVS Vision, ASICS Outlet, SKECHERS Factory Outlet, Road Runner Sports, New Balance, Marine Layer, Madewell, Fendi, Car Toys, DriveTime Used Cars, Copart, 99 Cents Only Stores, Simon Properties Group, SITE Centers Corp, Bargain Hunt, WSS, Sun & Ski Sports

Earnings Look Ahead: Note that visits are not comp stores

Nordstrom (JWN—Best Idea Short). Last Q Sales: -6.4%; this Q Consensus: +1.3% | Trailing 13Wk Last Q Visits: -20.9%, Rack -7.2%; Trailing 13Wk This Q Visits: -13%, Rack -3.2%

European Wax Center (EWCZ—Best Idea Short). Last Q Sales: +1.2%; this Q Consensus: +1% | Trailing 13Wk Last Q Visits: +5%; Trailing 13Wk This Q Visits: +1.4%

Foot Locker (FL—Best Idea Long). Last Q Sales: -8.5%; this Q Consensus: -2.5% | Trailing 13Wk Last Q Visits: -9.4%; Trailing 13Wk This Q Visits: -7.9%

Gap (GPS—Best Idea Short). Last Q Sales: -6.7%; this Q Consensus: -0.7% | Trailing 13Wk Last Q Visits: Gap -11%, Banana Republic -20.3%, Athleta +2.9%, Old Navy -11.6%; Trailing 13Wk This Q Visits: Gap -6.3%, Banana Republic -14.4%, Athleta -3.3%, Old Navy -1.7%

Arhaus (ARHS—Short Bias). Last Q Sales: +1.9%; this Q Consensus: -5.8% | Trailing 13Wk Last Q Visits: -24.7% ; Trailing 13Wk This Q Visits: -22.8%

Savers Value Village (SVV—Short Bias). Last Q Sales: +3.8%; this Q Consensus: +2.6% | Trailing 13Wk Last Q Visits: Value Village 7.2%, Unique 6.4%, 2nd Ave -0.2%; Trailing 13Wk This Q Visits: Value Village 6.6%, Unique 5.1%, 2nd Ave -2.3%