NewsWire: 2/28/24
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Chart of the Week: SECESSION WATCH
About one in four Americans (23%) would support their state seceding from the United States, according to a new YouGov poll of over 35K respondents.
Other surveys in this vein have found Southern states, rural residents, and Republicans to be the most supportive of secession. But in this poll, the most pro-secession states are a mix of large blue and red states: Alaska (36%), Texas (31%), California (29%), New York (28%), and Oklahoma (28%). And Republicans (29%), while still more pro-secession, are not hugely ahead of Democrats (21%) or independents (19%). Support for secession is highest among 18- to 29-year-olds and declines moving down the age ladder.
The idea that nearly a quarter of Americans want their state to secede is disturbing. Yet support for secession is probably even higher than this. In 2021, we covered a survey that asked a better version of this question: whether respondents would support their state seceding alongside other nearby states to form a new regional union. This makes more sense than a state seceding alone. When framed this way, the appeal of secession is much higher: 44% of those who live in the South would support this, and 39% of those who live in the Pacific states would.
To be sure, some support for secession is “expressive”—as in, more reflective of frustration than a genuine desire or intentions to withdraw from the union. But it was no doubt expressive in 1860 as well. It doesn’t mean that these opinions don’t have consequences.
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More from our archives: “America At War… with the World and Itself” (Pt. 2), “Secession Sentiment Rises in America,” “The Surge in Violent Political Threats,” and “America on the Verge of Civil War?”
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Study of the Week
By the year 2100, almost half of the 30K cities in the United States are projected to lose anywhere from 12 to 23% of their populations. Every state except for Hawaii will be affected by depopulation. This is according to a new study published in Nature Cities from researchers at the University of Illinois Chicago, who based their projections on trends in Census Bureau data since 2000.
Regionally, the areas expected to be the most heavily affected by depopulation are the Northeast and the Midwest as people continue moving to the South and West. By state, Vermont and West Virginia will be hardest hit, with an estimated 80% of the cities in these states poised to shrink. Michigan, Illinois, New Hampshire, Kansas, and Mississippi won’t be far behind, with an estimated 75% of their cities expected to lose residents.
Extremely long-term projections, of course, should be considered more of an informational tool than a prediction. Anything from changes in immigration policy to natural disasters or future pandemics could result in drastic shifts in the populations of different cities. That said, barring some unanticipated turnaround in fertility or a massive and sustained uptrend in net immigration, it’s safe to say that depopulation in most states is on the way.
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Stats of the Week
- For the first time, 2022 federal data show that most K-12 students (53%) now arrive at school in private cars (i.e., getting dropped off or driving themselves). A third arrive via school bus, 11% by foot or bike, and 2% by public transit. In 1969, students were far more likely to walk, bike, or take the bus to school than use a car. What changed? Over the years, schools have been increasingly built in less dense areas that are more difficult to walk or bike to—and most recently, cuts to school bus service in many districts have further pushed down bus usage. What’s more, many parents consider biking or walking alone dangerous. A long, slow-moving line of SUVs is now a morning fixture in front of schools around the country.
- Another first: Revenue from streaming services is expected to overtake revenue from pay TV by Q3 2024, according to a new study from research firm Ampere Analysis. Streaming services surpassed pay TV in subscriber numbers years ago, but have lagged behind in revenue because one streaming subscription only generates about a tenth of what one pay-TV subscription generates. The study credits the bump in streaming’s revenue to the recent flood of services that have created cheaper, ad-supported subscription tiers, which has goosed subscriber growth.
- Worried that your kids aren’t active enough? Get a dog. According to a new study that tracked 600 preschool-age children in Australia over three years, kids who live in households with family dogs get more physical activity than those who don’t. This might seem obvious considering that owning a dog involves regular walks and play—but it makes an especially big difference for girls, who average an additional 52 minutes of physical activity a day compared to those who don’t own dogs.
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Recommended Reads
- WP’s Michelle Ye Hee Lee profiles women and men who are pushing back against gender and family norms in South Korea
- NYT’s Stephanie Nolen on Brazil’s massive dengue fever outbreak, which is making its way through the Americas
- Bloomberg columnist and historian Niall Ferguson asks readers to imagine a future in which America loses World War III
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