NewsWire: 2/23/24
#1. US: Fertility Declines
The CDC has released preliminary fertility data for the 12 months ending in Q3 2023. (CDC)
-
TFR:
1.63, -2.1% YoY - Age-Specific Birthrates
- Increases
- 35-39: 54.9, +0.2% YoY
- 40-44: 12.7, +2.4% YoY
- Decreases
- 15-19: 13.4, -0.7% YoY
- 20-24: 56.0, -7.6% YoY
- 25-29: 92.0, -1.4% YoY
- 30-34: 95.7, -1.4% YoY
- No Change
- 10-14: 0.2
- 45+: 1.1
- Our Take: During the pandemic, US fertility took a respite from its relentless decline. In 2021, the TFR rose for the first time in seven years. And in 2022, it remained flat. But the good times are over: The TFR has fallen in each of the first three quarters of 2023 (12-month moving average). Expect a similar YoY decline when the Q4 data are released. Note that the birthrate once again fell for women ages 30-34; this is further evidence that Millennials aren’t just “putting off” having children. (See “So Much for the ‘Tempo Effect’.”)
#2. Spain: Population Increases
Spain has released full-year population estimates for 2023. (National Statistics Institute)
-
Births:
322.1K, -2.0% YoY - Deaths: 434.1K, -5.8% YoY
- Natural Increase: -113.3K people
- Implied Net Immigration: +620.8K people
- Migrants by Nationality:
- 1. Colombia: 158.6K
- 2. Morocco: 94.9K
- 3. Venezuela: 82.2K
- 4. Spain: 81.4K
- 5. Peru: 63.6K
- Total Population (Jan 1, 2024): 48.6M, +1.1% YoY
- Our Take: Due to the 16th-century Spanish conquest of the New World, hundreds of millions of Spanish speakers live in the Western Hemisphere. And ever since Spain entered the eurozone in 1999, waves of Latin American migrants have returned to their ancestorial homeland. This has helped boost Spain’s population and GDP for the last two decades. (See “Spain’s Secret Economic Weapon: Latin America”; Portugal has recently enjoyed a similar net immigration boost from Brazil.) In 2023, migration from Latin America (i.e., Colombia, Venezuela, and Peru) was once again the main driver behind Spain’s population growth.
#3. Finland: Immigration Skyrockets
Finland has released preliminary vital statistics for 2023. (Statistics Finland)
- Births: 43.3K, -3.6% YoY
- TFR: 1.26, -4.6% YoY
- Deaths: 61.1K, -3.3% YoY
- Natural Increase: -17.8K people
- Net Immigration: 58.5K, +70.2% YoY
- Total Population: 5.6M, +0.7% YoY
- Our Take: In 2023, Finland’s population grew due to a significant increase in net immigration. There was a large spike in migrants from Asian countries like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. The number of international students substantially rose. Ukrainian refugees continued to enter the country, albeit in smaller numbers than in 2022. And 1.3K asylum seekers from Syria, Somalia, and Yemen entered the country from its border with Russia. Finland says Russia sent these migrants as retaliation for joining NATO. It has now closed its eastern border and is considering legislation to return border crossers as soon as they enter the country.
#4. Netherlands: Immigration Remains High
The Netherlands has released preliminary vital statistics for 2023. (Statistics Netherlands)
- Births: 164.9K, -1.6% YoY
- TFR: 1.43, -4.0% YoY
- Deaths: 169.3K, -0.5% YoY
- Natural Increase: -4.4K people
- Net Immigration: 144.4K, -35.5% YoY
- Total Population: 17.9M, +0.6% YoY
- Our Take: In 2023, the Netherlands’ population grew entirely due to net immigration. While migration declined YoY, it’s still high compared to the historical trend. This has led to an increase in anti-immigration sentiment. In November, Geert Wilders’s far-right PVV party won the most seats in parliament for the first time by pledging closed borders.
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