“What the hell are you doing?” -Charles Barkley
“I’m trying to win a Super Bowl.” -Tom Brady
In a great chapter (titled “Intention”) of a great #behavioral book I’ve cited multiple times now, The Right Call, Sally Jenkins recounts a story about a 43yr old man named Tom Brady who was playing in a charity golf event in Florida.
Mickelson, Woods, Manning, etc. – they were all there. “Yet a couple of hours before the event, broadcaster Charles Barkley spotted Brady running sprints in the parking lot of the golf club, pouring sweat in the tropical heat.” (pg 167)
Love that! And while I hate losing more than I love winning. Winning for the right reasons, AFTER you’ve put in all the real, differentiated, hard work – well, that’s why we play The Game!
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
In today’s Early Look I’m just going to dunk on bears and tell you how sweet I am at this. #Not
Yesterday wasn’t a day I “called” or predicted with some crystal ball. It just came to me (and you) as The Game does. I never know WHEN I’m going to get an obvious open receiver in the end-zone. I just know what to do WHEN I see that.
2/21/24 at 3:08PM EST, BUY SIGNAL QQQ 422.26
#timestamped
For those of you who don’t subscribe to my Real-Time (Coaching) Alerts, but want to know WHEN to execute in YOUR portfolios, I think this is as good an in-Game coaching tool as I can deliver.
It wasn’t always this way. Why?
A) Because I knew how and WHEN to execute as a player, but was bad at coaching it …
B) So, I committed to #GettingBetter, and inserted what I call “Coaching Notes” to most Alerts
Since these alerts are what they say they are (i.e. they are NOT a portfolio), they’re meant to not only tell you WHEN I’m doing something in my portfolios, but why. Here’s what I wrote yesterday:
Coaching Notes:
1. Yep, instead of chasing on green like a rabid dog, I wait patiently for days like this
2. Clearly consensus is freaking out about what this NVDA print might be
3. They'll be chasing again on green if the print is what it's supposed to be!
"Feel" nothing but the need to execute within the Risk Ranges,
KM
Yep, that’s it. Nothing “sweet” or fancy about it. Just me shooting the puck when someone better than me gets it to me in the slot. I never overthought that play then … and I certainly don’t now.
The bigger opportunity was to take that well-timed signal and broaden my longer-term Full Investing Cycle Asset Allocations to US GROWTH, as a Factor Exposure.
You’ll see that in The MFO (Mucker Family Office Long Only Account) via our new Portfolio Solutions product this morning. Here’s the re-ranked SIZING, by position, by yesterday’s close in my Top 10 Asset Allocations:
- Ball Hogger Positions (High Yielding Cash) still at the Top: FDRXX, BUXX, TBIL, TFLO
- Long US Dollars (UUP) which I’ll be buying more of today because I’m only halfway to my MAX position
- Long QQQ
- Long SPMO (S&P Momentum)
- Long Dutch Stocks (EWN)
- Long Insurance Stocks (KBWP)
- Long Large Cap Growth (XLG)
- Long US Healthcare Stocks (PJP)
- Long Small Cap India (SMIN)
- Long Russell Growth (IWO)
“Oh, no you didn’t you dirty little Mucker (that’s with an M).”
Yep, I did, for The Fam. And not one person woke up this morning calling me sweet or Muck-Nostradamus. So far my wife, Laura, and 2 of my 4 kids are up. The only thing I’ve been asked is whether I fed the dog.
I’m just a 49 year old man, playing The Game as best I can with the team and tools that I’ve built. We don’t get everything right. But we got this and the Sell Duration (Bonds) pivot right with Inflation signaling Higher For Longer.
Doing my equivalent of running in the parking lot this morning I observed fractal beauty. The mathematically inclined call this a Similar Set: BHLs (BIG-higher-lows) within Bullish TREND Breakouts in both Oil (WTI) and the UST 10yr Yield.
Immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal with @Hedgeye TREND signal in brackets
UST 30yr Yield 4.31-4.54% (bullish)
UST 10yr Yield 4.08-4.39% (bullish)
UST 2yr Yield 4.40-4.72% (bullish)
SPX 4 (bullish)
NASDAQ 15,511-16,076 (bullish)
RUT 1 (neutral)
Tech (XLK) 198-210 (bullish)
Insurance (IAK) 106.52-111.41 (bullish)
S&P Momentum (SPMO) 72.92-75.71 (bullish)
Healthcare (PINK) 29.07-30.48 (bullish)
Shanghai Comp 2 (bullish)
Nikkei 36,906-39,152 (bullish)
BSE Sensex (India) 71,113-73,622 (bullish)
VIX 12.80-16.43 (bullish)
USD 103.45-104.93 (bullish)
Oil (WTI) 75.07-79.13 (bullish)
Oil (Brent) 80.03-84.64 (bullish)
MSFT 398-422 (bullish)
AAPL 179-188 (bearish)
NVDA 673-775 (bullish)
Bitcoin 50,163-52,938 (bullish)
Best of luck out there today,
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
