Industry: Our Aggregate Visits Data accelerated from -6% last week to -2.2% YY in this week’s update, while the 5Wk Avg also accelerated from -5.6% to -4.8%. The 2Yr and 3Yr Trends saw accelerations from -4% to +1.6% and 0% to +5.1%, respectively, showing improving trends across the comparison base. At the same time, Redbook Retail Comp visits saw an acceleration from +2.5% last week to +3% this week with the 2Yr trend slightly accelerating from +3.7% to +4.2%, implying the acceleration this week was on a tougher comp. Aggregate YY visits have been negative since the brief positive stint in June, and while trends do seem to be improving in recent weeks, we are not confident that this is sustainable given where we see the consumer wallet. We are tracking the Tax Refund data to get a read on where additional spending capacity is trending in the early months of 2024, and the numbers are looking weak compared to last year so far. On a cumulative refund basis (all of ’24 so far) the total amount refunded improved from -77% YY after the first week to -51% YY after the second week (though this is glaringly negative because the ‘23 comparison contains an extra week of filing data). Looking at this most recent week of refunds, they were down -14% YY compared to last year. Overall, refunds are not freeing up excess spending vs last year, but that RoC trend will likely continue to improve in the coming updates.
- Notable Industry Callouts: Accelerations in Beauty & Spa, Clothing, Recreational & Sporting Goods, Hobbies, Gifts, & Crafts, Superstores, Department Stores, Electronics Stores, Discount & Dollar Stores, Pet Stores &Services, and Shopping Centers. Decelerations in Home Improvement and Car Shops & Services—two bigger ticket spending categories.
Companies: Numbers below = YoY Rate of Change from week to week
- Notable Accelerations: Bath & Body Works+18%, MarineMax +15%, Dollar Tree +15%, Jared +13%, Kay Jewelers +12%, Anthro +12%, Kohl’s +10%
- Notable Decelerations: Lovesac -13%, Bluemercury -9%
Earnings Look Ahead:
- Lowe’s (LOW—Best Idea Short). Consensus Sales Estimate: -17.7%
- Macy’s (M). Consensus Sales Estimate: -2.2%
- Ross Stores (ROST). Consensus Sales Estimate: +10.4%
- Puma (PUM-DE—Short Bias). Consensus Sales Estimate: -6%
- Autozone (AZO). Consensus Sales Estimate: +4.3%
- Big 5 Sporting Goods (BGFV—Best Idea Short). Consensus Sales Estimate: -17.6%
- Dollar Tree (DLTR). Consensus Sales Estimate: +12.3%
- Advance Auto Parts (AAP). Consensus Sales Estimate: -0.5%
- Best Buy (BBY—Best Idea Short). Consensus Sales Estimate: -1.2%
- Carters (CRI—Long Bias). Consensus Sales Estimate: -4.7%
- The TJX Cos (TJX—Best Idea Long). Consensus Sales Estimate: +11.5%
- Burlington Stores (BURL—Short Bias). Consensus Sales Estimate: +10.9%
Chart List:
- Industry
- Companies
Source: Placer.ai
