GEOPOLITICS: WAR WITH THE HOUTHIS + EVENT TODAY @ 11AM Spanning the Globe with Col Jeff McCausland

 

The Houthis Threaten the Global Economy….

The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden have become nearly untenable for commercial shipping in recent weeks. A key trade passage – about 10% of all international shipping travels through these waterways – vessels using this route have been threatened by waves of exploding drones and missiles launched by the Iran-aligned Houthi militants who control the most populous areas of Yemen. They declare that this campaign is a show of solidarity to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, where Israel’s military continues to conduct offensive military operations against Hamas.

Beyond a show of solidarity, however, the Houthi attacks are a massive roadblock for international shipping between Asia and Europe, raising fears that supply bottlenecks could stoke global economic issues and incite a greater regional conflict. The cost to ship a single container from Asia to Europe has tripled now that many shipping companies are sending their vessels around southern Africa as opposed to using the Red Sea and Suez Canal. This has also already had a serious effect on the economy of Egypt who has seen its revenues from ships transiting the Suez Canal cut in half.

The United States and the United Kingdom along with several other countries have worked together recently and delivered a series of airstrikes against the Houthis. These have successfully struck targets that included missile/drone launch sites, command/control, logistics, etc., but they have not deterred the Houthis from subsequent attacks. After more than 30 attacks on commercial vessels and naval vessels since mid-November, the Houthis constitute a true challenge for the global economy.

President Joe Biden acknowledged last month that strikes alone may not halt the Houthi attacks, but he promised they would continue. Unlike recent retaliatory attacks in Syria and Iraq which were solely conducted by the United States, the attacks in Yemen were conducted by an international coalition. American and British aircraft were directly involved in the airstrikes against military targets in Houthi-controlled Yemen, but this operation has also been supported by Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, and New Zealand.

“These strikes are intended to further disrupt and degrade the capabilities of the Iranian-backed Houthi militia to conduct their reckless and destabilizing attacks against U.S. and international vessels lawfully transiting the Red Sea,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin declared following a number of strikes on 3 February.

U.S. and British strikes against Houthi military targets began a few weeks earlier on 11 January. American officials say these strikes have degraded the group’s arsenal, but they have not stopped or even slowed their attacks thus far. The events have raised a series of key questions for policymakers in Washington who are scrambling to address the crisis. Among the most important ones are: how much damage can the Houthis do and how long can they keep it up?

The Houthis, an Iranian “client” state that Tehran probably has the least control over, have pointed out that they were able to withstand a nine-year air campaign by Saudi Arabia. The Houthis are not widely recognized as the legitimate government in Yemen, but they control areas where 70-80% of the population lives and had depended massively on foreign aid. Most of that aid was discontinued when the United States designated the Houthis as a Specially Designated Terrorist group on 17 January.

Houthi leaders have insisted their efforts will continue until their terms are met, and the war in Gaza is ended. They also likely hope to distract the Yemeni public from the disastrous state of the nation following the war with Saudi Arabia. Consequently, they are also using propaganda associated with this effort to attract recruits and money, as they have trumpeted the fact that they are one of the few Arab “governments” that is directly supporting the Palestinians.

The Houthis are now also threatening to sabotage essential undersea communication cables that run under the Red Sea and connect Asia to Europe. This includes lines that carry 17% of the world’s internet traffic. The Houthis appear to have acquired maps that show the confluence of the undersea communication cables that run past the Yemeni coastline and pass through the 20-mile-wide Bab al-Mandab Strait. However, whether they have the capability to damage these cables, which are hundreds of meters under the surface, seems unlikely.

Nevertheless, the prospect is sure to keep policymakers awake, and the United States has few options. It is important to remember that President Biden came to office with a promise to end the U.S. involvement in the Middle East, not to expand it. This was illustrated by the withdrawal from Afghanistan. And this operation is not like the War on Terrorism, as American retaliatory strikes are increasingly seen as an offensive air campaign– not defensive.

For that reason, members of Congress are already raising concerns over the Biden administration’s approach, as some have argued that the president must consult with Congress about future strikes. Several senators from both parties have argued that the United States is entering a sustained offensive military operation against the Houthis, and the president must seek authorization under the War Powers Act.

There are also growing concerns that this confrontation between the United States and the Houthis could spill over into a regional conflict that would involve Iran and potentially other Middle Eastern countries. Tehran is involved already. The United States lost two Navy SEALs during a special operation mission that seized an Iranian vessel off the coast of Somalia, which was delivering missile warheads and weapon parts to the Houthis.

The Biden Administration is seeking to avoid any possibility of escalation, but events in the Red Sea could quickly compromise that effort. The special U.S. envoy to Yemen, Tim Lenderking, said at a recent think-tank conference that diplomatic efforts are "being made to try and find a climbdown for the Houthis that would enable (the) situation to improve and to move away from the kinetic aspect" of the Red Sea crisis. He also accused Tehran of providing intelligence to help the Houthis determine “which are the most lucrative targets.”

Those comments came just before Lenderking boarded a flight to Oman to pursue dialogue on the crisis, and they were preceded by talks held there last week by British Foreign Secretary David Cameron, the Norwegian deputy foreign minister and United Nations Special Envoy Hans Grundberg.

As previously mentioned, there is growing international support to halt the Houthis’ interruption of these key waterways. The UN Security Council passed a resolution condemning the Houthis and its attacks, though Russia and China abstained from the vote. The United States has also established a multilateral effort called “Prosperity Guardian” that aims to ensure both the freedom of navigation and the safety of maritime traffic in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden. The Pentagon has said 20 countries are involved, though half do so anonymously. There is also increasing international economic pressure on the Houthis.

The United States recently placed the Houthis on its international terrorist list once again, which limits their ability to receive international funding and humanitarian aid. This news has already resulted in a massive disruption of aid in northern Yemen and comes only shortly after the Biden administration had removed them from that list over concerns it was causing mass starvation across Yemen. The decision to list them once again as international terrorists will unfortunately have a massive effect on the civilian population that is already in a dire condition. At the end of 2022, UN agencies reported that 17.8 million people in Yemen (more than half than the population) did not have access to safe drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene services. Most were food “insecure” and roughly 6 million Yemenis faced starvation.

Where this crisis heads next is unknown.  But any resolution appears inextricably tied to the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Iran appears willing to support the Houthis, but Tehran does not seem interested in being pulled into a wider conflict and a possible confrontation with the United States. The Biden administration is also making a concerted effort to secure a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, but leaders of Israel and Hamas seem far from finding an agreement. More than anything, however, the White House does not want the Houthis to disrupt any possibility of a peace process and release of the hostages held by Hamas – and they cannot afford to sacrifice that by pursuing a larger military confrontation.

But the Houthis are showing no sign of backing down and have little to lose. They survived a long war with Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government, so these recent strikes do not intimidate them. They have created an ability to build some of their own weapons and proved to be bold in the past, even striking a Saudi oil depot in Jeddah just before a Formula 1 Grand Prix in 2022. So, while they may be under-resourced, they are proving to be a force to be reckoned with and unafraid of creating havoc without regard for lives or, damage to the global economy.