Industry: Our Aggregate Visits Data continued to accelerate in this week’s update, moving from -3.8% YY last week to -3.2% YY. At the same time, the 5Wk Avg accelerated from -8.3% to -6.3% as the major negative weeks seen post-Christmas shift continue to drop off. Redbook Retail Comp Sales also saw a strong acceleration from +5% to +6.1% with its 2Yr Avg increasing from +5% to +5.2%. Earnings season continues to show negative reports for Retail in aggregate, with a few positive reporters. As much as we're looking to get more bullish on Retail, we're sticking with names that have idiosyncratic drivers – as in aggregate, we think the reality is that earnings expectations for the group remain ~30% too high.
- Notable Industry Callouts: There were big divergences across the subcategories this week with strong accelerations in less discretionary categories like Car Shops & Services and Discount & Dollar Stores, and decelerations in more discretionary categories like Hobbies, Gifts, & Crafts and Department Stores.
Companies: Numbers below = YoY Rate of Change from week to week
- Notable Accelerations: Lovesac+26%, Aritzia +14%, Homesense +14%, Old Navy +12%, Kay Jewelers Outlet +11%
- Notable Decelerations: Kohl’s -33%, The Children’s Place -12%
Earnings Look Ahead:
- Asbury Automotive Group (ABG): Consensus Sales Estimate -0.2%
- Lithia Motors (LAD—Best Idea Short): Consensus Sales Estimate +13.8%
- Sonic Automotive Group (SAH—Short Bias): Consensus Sales Estimate +0.5%
- AutoNation (AN): Consensus Sales Estimate -0.2%
- Big 5 Sporting Goods (BGFV-Best Idea Short): Consensus Sales Estimate -17.6%
Chart List:
- Industry
- Companies
Source: Placer.ai
