NewsWire: 2/7/24
#1. US: Crime Down YoY, But Up Since 2019
The CCJ has released its 2023 full-year report on crime in 38 American cities. (Council on Criminal Justice)
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Homicide: 12.7 per 100k
- -10% YoY; +18% since 2019
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Aggravated Assault: 241.2 per 100k
- -3% YoY; +8% 2019
- Robbery: 206.4 per 100k
- +2% YoY; +1% 2019
- Gun Assault: 59.5 per 100k
- -7% YoY; +32% 2019
- Residential Burglary: 117.3 per 100k
- -3% YoY; -26% 2019
- Motor Vehicle Theft: 730.4 per 100k
- +29% YoY; +105% 2019
- Our Take: Last year, major cities reported a YoY decline in most violent crimes. But rates remained above pre-pandemic levels. While this pattern matches preliminary 2023 data from the FBI, the CCJ reports smaller YoY reductions. So far, the FBI is consistently more optimistic about the decline in crime than other sources. For a more complete picture, we await the final FBI report and the 2023 National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), the gold standard in tracking crime.
#2. US: Union Membership Dips
The BLS has released 2023 union data from the Current Population Survey. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
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Union Membership Rate: 10.0%, -0.1 percentage points YoY
- Public Sector: 32.5%,
- Private Sector: 6.0%
- Membership By State
- Highest: New York 20.6%; Hawaii 24.1%
- Lowest: South Carolina 2.3%; North Carolina 2.7%
- Median Weekly Earnings
- Union Members: 1,263
- Nonunion Workers: 1,090
- Our Take: The 2023 union membership rate, 10%, marks a record low in the BLS's 40 years of tracking. This drop in membership runs counter to the public’s growing support for organized labor. According to Gallup, 67% of Americans approve of unions. That’s +5 percentage points above the average reading over the last 87 years (62%) and +19 percentage points above the 2009 record low (48%).
#3. Germany: Net Immigration Declines
Germany has released its preliminary 2023 vital statistics. (Destatis)
- Births: 680K-700K; -7% YoY
- Deaths: 1.02M; -4% YoY
- Natural Increase: -320K people
- Net Immigration: 680K-710K; -51% YoY
- Total Population: 84.7M; +0.4% YoY
- Our Take: In 2023, Germany’s population grew due to positive net immigration. While migration was down compared to 2022, when Ukrainian refugees poured into Germany, it was still above the historical average. Currently, anti-immigration sentiment is growing in Germany. The far-right AFD has focused on the issue and risen in the polls. And even the ruling center-left coalition has passed a bill to more easily expel suspicious asylum-seekers. (However, it also passed a dual bill to make it easier for longtime foreign-born residents to gain citizenship.)
#4. Hungary: Births Fall Despite Baby Bonuses
Hungary has released its preliminary 2023 vital statistics. (Hungarian Central Statistical Office)
- Births: 85.2K; -3.7% YoY
- TFR: 1.50; -1.3% YoY
- Deaths: 127.2K; -6.8% YoY
- Natural Increase: -42.0K people
- Net Immigration: 22.3K
- Total Population: 9.6M; -0.2% YoY
- Our Take: Under Viktor Orbán, Hungary has introduced one of Europe’s most aggressive (and expensive) pronatalist programs. Perhaps as a result of these policies, fertility climbed steadily for the first half of the 2010s. But after 2015, the increases began to slow. And the TFR has declined for the last two years. So what’s Orbán’s plan? He is giving the baby bonus spigot a few more cranks. (See “Young Hungarian Moms Go Tax-Free for Life.”)
#5. Canada: Fertility Drops to Record Low
Canada has released the final 2022 TFR numbers by province/territory (excluding the Yukon). (Statistics Canada)
- Canada: 1.33; -7.6% YoY
- Lowest:
- British Columbia: 1.11
- Nova Scotia: 1.18
- Newfoundland & Labrador: 1.22
- Prince Edward Island: 1.22
- Ontario: 1.27
- New Brunswick: 1.33
- Highest
- Nunavut: 2.23
- Saskatchewan: 1.69
- Northwest Territories: 1.49
- Quebec: 1.49
- Alberta: 1.45
- Manitoba: 1.43
- Our take: This report confirms the preliminary TFR reading and adds new data by province/territory. (See “Demography Roundup #7.”) In 2022, Canada recorded its lowest TFR on record. This was also true for 10 out of 13 provinces and territories. Compared to UN estimates, Canada’s TFR is now the lowest in the English-speaking world: New Zealand 1.76; US 1.66; Australia 1.60; and UK 1.57. This is more evidence that Anglophone countries no longer have exceptional fertility rates compared to other high-income nations. (See "Demography Roundup #1.”)
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