“There is a time for certain ideas to arrive, and they find a way to express themselves through us.”
-Rick Rubin
Fifteen years into this journey, when it comes to creating new products and services @Hedgeye, I’ve never been more inspired by those who create. Think Rick Rubin of Def Jam Recordings instead of some Linear Econ with his 60/40 Portfolio on the Old Wall…
“Turning something from an idea into a reality can make it seem smaller. It changes from unearthly to earthly… The imagination has no limits. The physical world does. The work exists in both.” -Rick Rubin in The Creative Act (pg 18)
This year, you’re going to see many new manifestations of both our proprietary Full Investing Cycle #process and the “picks” born out of it. Why? The People of #HedgeyeNation have spoken. They want picks!
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
One of the most challenging (and inspiring) dynamics about building this company is trying to get the least experienced “investor” to think like those of you who are playing at the highest level of The Game.
One of my initial pivots was to try to become their “coach.” Personally, that’s helped me more than it’s probably helped anyone else. For me at least, coaching The Game is much more difficult than playing it.
That said, we appreciate all your kind compliments and, more importantly, your suggestions about coaching #TheProcess. One of the most obvious things we needed to create was a DAILY visualization of what I AM DOING with the process!
We’ve called this new product/service Portfolio Solutions.
Essentially, Portfolio Solutions is my family office’s Long Only account. You can see every ETF Asset Allocation decision I make. You can see what I’m adding to or subtracting from with every position re-ranked (in terms of SIZE), daily.
While a CNBC SPY Monkey or laser-eyed HODLer of Luna Coins may not “get” this, that’s of no concern to me.
My daily goal is to challenge both you and I to execute on the world’s most transparent and data-driven #process. No one else has even attempted to give you this level of transparency and accountability. The time for this idea has arrived.
So what did I do on red yesterday? I did what I do. I bought-more of 12 existing ETF Asset Allocations and added 2 new ones:
- Bought-MORE of: BUXX, SHY, GLD, AAAU, KBWP, ITB, EWA, SPLV, GXG, EWN, URA, and BBN
- Added 2 NEW Asset Allocations: Sweden (EWD) and Global Shipping (BOAT)
You see, it doesn’t matter what the Old Wall types or Meme Noobs think about what I do. I do what I do. It’s in my family’s hard-earned accounts. What you do is in yours.
That’s it. And while the WHEN matters a LOT more than the WHY, we can explain why with more mathematical, rules-based, detail than anyone on Wall Street, daily.
We do that both in print (Early Look) and on The Call and on The Macro Show… just to get today’s Game Day started!
Today is Game 25 of the 2024 Season. God willing, I’ll cross the 6,000 games played mark this year. I never think of my account balances on a “YTD” basis (I do Cycle To-Date, because my money does), but I do count games played on the calendar.
As a younger player in The Game, I’d count EVERY single day’s winnings or losings as a validation of my competence (so did my bosses, when I had those, lol!). I don’t do that anymore. That’s called “resulting.” And it won’t make you long for this game…
What I’m most interested in (every day) is #GettingBetter at not only coaching you all through #TheProcess, but executing on it for my family and firm. I’m much more concerned about consistency and discipline in execution than the daily outcome.
Why did I buy more of the following Asset Allocations yesterday?
A) The US ISM Services report #accelerated to 53.4 in JAN from 50.5 in DEC with a big #acceleration in employment
B) Wall Street read that as #Quad1 Hawkish (because it was), and took Rates Up towards the Top-End of my Risk Ranges
C) Our Core Asset Allocation to the US Dollar (UUP) was up on a rope on the same
So, if you get Portfolio Solutions daily, you saw that “Sold SOME” US Dollars (UUP) was my only sale on the day…
And you saw me get longer of mostly Global Equity Exposures and some Fixed Income and Gold Exposures:
A) US EQUITIES: Insurance (KBWP), Housing (ITB), Low Volatility (SPLV)
B) GLOBAL EQUITIES: Australia (EWA), Colombia (GXG), Netherlands (EWN)
C) FIXED INCOME (and Gold = GLD, AAAU): Short-term Bonds (BUXX, SHY) and Municipal Bonds (BBN)
Provided that my SIGNAL confirms the green light to buy, you should be buying-more of all of these Asset Allocations if a country’s GIP Model (Growth, Inflation, Policy) is in narrow #Quad4 and/or outright #Quad1 or #Quad2.
Do you think it matters to me that 99% of people on Old Wall TV don’t know that the Quad Count for the Netherlands for the next 4 quarters is 1-1-2-1? How about that Colombia entered #Quad1 in Q4 of 2023?
Nope. As a player/coach, the only thing that matters to me is how WE play The Game.
Immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal with @Hedgeye TREND signal in brackets
UST 30yr Yield 4.12-4.47% (neutral)
UST 10yr Yield 3.89-4.20% (bearish)
UST 2yr Yield 4.20-4.48% (bearish)
High Yield (HYG) 76.58-77.54 (neutral)
SPX 4 (bullish)
NASDAQ 15,180-15,775 (bullish)
RUT 1 (bearish)
Tech (XLK) 197-206 (bullish)
Insurance (IAK) 104.35-108.11 (bullish)
S&P Momentum (SPMO) 69.36-73.25 (bullish)
BSE Sensex (India) 70,398-72,693 (bullish)
VIX 12.70-14.78 (bullish)
USD 103.11-104.69 (bullish)
GBP/USD 1.252-1.276 (bullish)
Oil (WTI) 71.14-75.92 (bearish)
Gold 2006-2084 (bullish)
Uranium (URA) 29.57-32.34 (bullish)
TSLA 170-200 (bearish)
NVDA 632-701 (bullish)
Bitcoin 41,894-43,634 (bullish)
Best of luck out there today,
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
