Industry: Our Aggregate Visits Data saw an acceleration from -8.2% last week to -3.4% this week while the 5Wk Avg decelerated from -5% to -8% (because it lost the major pre-Christmas shift acceleration). At the same time we saw a slight deceleration in Redbook Retail Comp Sales, which fell from +5.2% YY to +5.0% YY in this weeks update. As we head into Retail earnings season, we’ve seen multiple incremental bearish data points across the space noting continued softness in demand, rising costs, and impactful effects of higher rates. Take Best Idea Short HZO, for example, which was slashed ~15% after reporting both weaker demand and higher promotions… Or GPI, which showed slowing trends across all of its revenue segments (except Finance & Insurance), kicking off Auto Retail earnings on an increasingly bearish note. As much as we want to be bullish on retail, the reality is that earnings expectations for the group remain ~30% too high.
- Notable Industry Callouts: Every subsector included in our Aggregate Visits Data saw an acceleration this week.
Companies: Numbers below = YoY Rate of Change from week to week
- Notable Accelerations: Topgolf +26%, Camping World +17%, Kohls +16%, Adidas +14%, Bath & Body Works +13%, Kay Jewelers +13%, Dillards +12%, Dollar Tree +12%, Meineke +11%, Take 5 Oil Change +11%,
- Notable Decelerations: Tractor Supply Co. -12%
Earnings Look Ahead: 3-Weeks Out
- The Home Depot (HD—Best Idea Short): Consensus Sales Estimate -3.3%
- Floor & Décor (FND—Best Idea Short): Consensus Sales Estimate -3.7%
- Camping World Holdings (CWH—Long Bias): Consensus Sales Estimate -10%
- Upbound Group (UPBD—Short Bias): Consensus Sales Estimate +0.4%
- Dillard’s (DDS): Consensus Sales Estimate -2.9%
- The Tile Shop (TTSH): Consensus Sales Estimate -5.2%
- Haverty Furniture Cos (HVT): Consensus Sales Estimate -17%
Chart List:
- Industry
- Companies
Source: Placer.ai
